Forecast models from agencies including the National Weather Service equivalents indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 21 will likely fall near 15–16°C under clear skies, high pressure, and light variable winds that limit overnight cooling. This aligns with the 2026 seasonal pattern of stable anticyclonic conditions following a warmer-than-average September, where historical averages for the date sit at 14.6°C but recent observations show slightly elevated nighttime readings. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 14°C or below reflects model spread in boundary-layer forecasts and the possibility of localized radiational cooling, while probabilities for 15°C or higher capture the most likely ensemble outcomes. Updated model runs and official station data from Madrid-Barajas or Retiro Park expected overnight will refine these near-term odds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月21日馬德裏最低氣溫？
14°C或以下 52%
16°C 40%
17°C 40%
15°C 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
14°C或以下
52%
15°C
21%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
16%
19°C
20%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或以上
<1%
14°C或以下 52%
16°C 40%
17°C 40%
15°C 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
14°C或以下
$0 交易量
52%
15°C
$0 交易量
21%
16°C
$0 交易量
40%
17°C
$0 交易量
40%
18°C
$0 交易量
16%
19°C
$0 交易量
20%
20°C
$0 交易量
<1%
21°C
$971 交易量
<1%
22°C
$614 交易量
<1%
23°C
$971 交易量
<1%
24°C或以上
$885 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the National Weather Service equivalents indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 21 will likely fall near 15–16°C under clear skies, high pressure, and light variable winds that limit overnight cooling. This aligns with the 2026 seasonal pattern of stable anticyclonic conditions following a warmer-than-average September, where historical averages for the date sit at 14.6°C but recent observations show slightly elevated nighttime readings. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 14°C or below reflects model spread in boundary-layer forecasts and the possibility of localized radiational cooling, while probabilities for 15°C or higher capture the most likely ensemble outcomes. Updated model runs and official station data from Madrid-Barajas or Retiro Park expected overnight will refine these near-term odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$3,441結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the National Weather Service equivalents indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 21 will likely fall near 15–16°C under clear skies, high pressure, and light variable winds that limit overnight cooling. This aligns with the 2026 seasonal pattern of stable anticyclonic conditions following a warmer-than-average September, where historical averages for the date sit at 14.6°C but recent observations show slightly elevated nighttime readings. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 14°C or below reflects model spread in boundary-layer forecasts and the possibility of localized radiational cooling, while probabilities for 15°C or higher capture the most likely ensemble outcomes. Updated model runs and official station data from Madrid-Barajas or Retiro Park expected overnight will refine these near-term odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,441結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETForecast models from agencies including the National Weather Service equivalents indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 21 will likely fall near 15–16°C under clear skies, high pressure, and light variable winds that limit overnight cooling. This aligns with the 2026 seasonal pattern of stable anticyclonic conditions following a warmer-than-average September, where historical averages for the date sit at 14.6°C but recent observations show slightly elevated nighttime readings. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 14°C or below reflects model spread in boundary-layer forecasts and the possibility of localized radiational cooling, while probabilities for 15°C or higher capture the most likely ensemble outcomes. Updated model runs and official station data from Madrid-Barajas or Retiro Park expected overnight will refine these near-term odds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions