**Persistent high pressure and high humidity are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in Miami, keeping overnight lows near the August climatological average of 78°F.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather project minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for August 13, 2026, with recent model runs showing partly cloudy skies and light winds that prevent significant temperature drops. This setup aligns with historical patterns where daily lows rarely fall below 74–75°F in mid-August, explaining the market's strong consensus around 78–79°F (62% implied probability) and 76–77°F (30%). Recent observations from Miami International Airport confirm elevated dew points near 78°F, further suppressing cooling, while no incoming cold fronts or unusual atmospheric conditions are expected to shift outcomes lower. Traders are weighting these stable subtropical dynamics heavily, with lower-probability bins reflecting only small forecast uncertainties typical of short-range weather models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月13日邁阿密的最低溫度?
78-79°F 55%
76-77°F 21%
74-75°F 10%
70-71°F <1%
華氏69度或以下
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
73%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F或更高
<1%
78-79°F 55%
76-77°F 21%
74-75°F 10%
70-71°F <1%
華氏69度或以下
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
73%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F或更高
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 11, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
**Persistent high pressure and high humidity are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in Miami, keeping overnight lows near the August climatological average of 78°F.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather project minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for August 13, 2026, with recent model runs showing partly cloudy skies and light winds that prevent significant temperature drops. This setup aligns with historical patterns where daily lows rarely fall below 74–75°F in mid-August, explaining the market's strong consensus around 78–79°F (62% implied probability) and 76–77°F (30%). Recent observations from Miami International Airport confirm elevated dew points near 78°F, further suppressing cooling, while no incoming cold fronts or unusual atmospheric conditions are expected to shift outcomes lower. Traders are weighting these stable subtropical dynamics heavily, with lower-probability bins reflecting only small forecast uncertainties typical of short-range weather models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions