**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow. Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week. The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日巴黎最低溫度？
8月26日巴黎最低溫度？
18°C 34%
19°C 28%
17°C 15%
16°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
14°C或以下
2%
15°C
8%
16°C
12%
17°C
15%
18°C
34%
19°C
28%
20°C
10%
21°C
5%
22°C
4%
23°C
7%
24°C或以上
2%
18°C 34%
19°C 28%
17°C 15%
16°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
14°C或以下
$165 交易量
2%
15°C
$151 交易量
8%
16°C
$9 交易量
12%
17°C
$134 交易量
15%
18°C
$725 交易量
34%
19°C
$140 交易量
28%
20°C
$0 交易量
10%
21°C
$50 交易量
5%
22°C
$131 交易量
4%
23°C
$5 交易量
7%
24°C或以上
$45 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow.
Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week.
The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$1,488結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow.
Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week.
The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,488結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow. Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week. The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions