Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts a maximum of 34°C for Tokyo on August 25 under partly cloudy conditions with a 20% precipitation chance, anchoring the leading market-implied probability near 34.5%. Nearby outcomes at 33°C and 35°C reflect model spread in ensemble runs, where subtle shifts in subtropical high pressure, sea surface temperatures around 28–29°C, and urban heat island amplification could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. High humidity near 75–80% adds thermal inertia but does not directly affect the dry-bulb maximum used for resolution. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten consensus before the 25th.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月25日東京氣溫最高？
8月25日東京氣溫最高？
34°C 35%
33°C 24%
32°C 17%
35°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
29°C or below
1%
30°C
10%
31°C
7%
32°C
17%
33°C
24%
34°C
35%
35°C
12%
36°C
3%
37°C
3%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 35%
33°C 24%
32°C 17%
35°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
29°C or below
$0 交易量
1%
30°C
$10 交易量
10%
31°C
$11 交易量
7%
32°C
$0 交易量
17%
33°C
$902 交易量
24%
34°C
$31 交易量
35%
35°C
$11 交易量
12%
36°C
$0 交易量
3%
37°C
$72 交易量
3%
38°C
$37 交易量
2%
39°C or higher
$12 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts a maximum of 34°C for Tokyo on August 25 under partly cloudy conditions with a 20% precipitation chance, anchoring the leading market-implied probability near 34.5%. Nearby outcomes at 33°C and 35°C reflect model spread in ensemble runs, where subtle shifts in subtropical high pressure, sea surface temperatures around 28–29°C, and urban heat island amplification could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. High humidity near 75–80% adds thermal inertia but does not directly affect the dry-bulb maximum used for resolution. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten consensus before the 25th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$500結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts a maximum of 34°C for Tokyo on August 25 under partly cloudy conditions with a 20% precipitation chance, anchoring the leading market-implied probability near 34.5%. Nearby outcomes at 33°C and 35°C reflect model spread in ensemble runs, where subtle shifts in subtropical high pressure, sea surface temperatures around 28–29°C, and urban heat island amplification could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. High humidity near 75–80% adds thermal inertia but does not directly affect the dry-bulb maximum used for resolution. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten consensus before the 25th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$500結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETJapan Meteorological Agency forecasts a maximum of 34°C for Tokyo on August 25 under partly cloudy conditions with a 20% precipitation chance, anchoring the leading market-implied probability near 34.5%. Nearby outcomes at 33°C and 35°C reflect model spread in ensemble runs, where subtle shifts in subtropical high pressure, sea surface temperatures around 28–29°C, and urban heat island amplification could alter peak readings by 1–2°C. High humidity near 75–80% adds thermal inertia but does not directly affect the dry-bulb maximum used for resolution. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten consensus before the 25th.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions