Recent high-resolution forecast models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate strong nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, positioning the official minimum near 15°C for Qingdao on September 3. This aligns with the 84% market-implied probability, as coastal moderation and dew-point trends limit further drops while supporting a narrow range around that threshold. The 16.5% odds on 14°C or below reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late adjustments to steering patterns, though consensus favors staying above that level. Historical September baselines around 18°C underscore the cooler anomaly driving trader positioning ahead of final observational confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日青島最低氣溫？
9月3日青島最低氣溫？
14°C或以下 23%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
14°C或以下
23%
15°C
58%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或以上
<1%
14°C或以下 23%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
14°C或以下
$5 交易量
23%
15°C
$262 交易量
58%
16°C
$678 交易量
<1%
17°C
$419 交易量
<1%
18°C
$247 交易量
<1%
19°C
$247 交易量
<1%
20°C
$66 交易量
<1%
21°C
$60 交易量
<1%
22°C
$80 交易量
<1%
23°C
$60 交易量
<1%
24°C或以上
$30 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution forecast models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate strong nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, positioning the official minimum near 15°C for Qingdao on September 3. This aligns with the 84% market-implied probability, as coastal moderation and dew-point trends limit further drops while supporting a narrow range around that threshold. The 16.5% odds on 14°C or below reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late adjustments to steering patterns, though consensus favors staying above that level. Historical September baselines around 18°C underscore the cooler anomaly driving trader positioning ahead of final observational confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$2,155結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution forecast models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate strong nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, positioning the official minimum near 15°C for Qingdao on September 3. This aligns with the 84% market-implied probability, as coastal moderation and dew-point trends limit further drops while supporting a narrow range around that threshold. The 16.5% odds on 14°C or below reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late adjustments to steering patterns, though consensus favors staying above that level. Historical September baselines around 18°C underscore the cooler anomaly driving trader positioning ahead of final observational confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,155結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRecent high-resolution forecast models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate strong nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow, positioning the official minimum near 15°C for Qingdao on September 3. This aligns with the 84% market-implied probability, as coastal moderation and dew-point trends limit further drops while supporting a narrow range around that threshold. The 16.5% odds on 14°C or below reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late adjustments to steering patterns, though consensus favors staying above that level. Historical September baselines around 18°C underscore the cooler anomaly driving trader positioning ahead of final observational confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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