Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and supporting ensemble models converge on a Seoul minimum of exactly 14°C for May 17 under mostly clear skies and light winds that enhance overnight radiational cooling. This stable high-pressure pattern aligns with mid-May climatology, where calm conditions typically produce lows at the lower end of the 12–16°C historical range, driving the market’s near-100% implied probability for that precise outcome. Traders appear to view the short lead time and consistent official guidance as high-certainty, though any unexpected increase in low-level cloud cover or surface winds before dawn could trap residual heat and nudge the recorded minimum to 15°C or higher when final observations are logged between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日首爾最低溫度?
14°C 100.0%
12°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$19,781 交易量
$19,781 交易量
12°C或以下
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C或更高
<1%
14°C 100.0%
12°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$19,781 交易量
$19,781 交易量
12°C或以下
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and supporting ensemble models converge on a Seoul minimum of exactly 14°C for May 17 under mostly clear skies and light winds that enhance overnight radiational cooling. This stable high-pressure pattern aligns with mid-May climatology, where calm conditions typically produce lows at the lower end of the 12–16°C historical range, driving the market’s near-100% implied probability for that precise outcome. Traders appear to view the short lead time and consistent official guidance as high-certainty, though any unexpected increase in low-level cloud cover or surface winds before dawn could trap residual heat and nudge the recorded minimum to 15°C or higher when final observations are logged between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions