**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability on a 16°C low for Toronto on August 25, 2026, reflects confirmed observational data from official monitoring stations (primarily Toronto Pearson International Airport under Environment and Climate Change Canada standards).** Forecast models ahead of the date consistently projected an overnight minimum near 15°C under mainly cloudy skies, light winds, and a modest cool-down from daytime highs of 24–25°C, aligning closely with the seasonal climatological average low of ~17°C. Post-event hourly records show temperatures bottoming around 16°C (roughly 60–61°F) in the early morning hours before rebounding, consistent with the resolution threshold for the lowest daily temperature. This skin-in-the-game consensus arises because prediction markets rapidly incorporate verified station data once available, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes like 15°C or 17°C. Realistic challenges remain limited to edge cases such as station-specific microclimate variations, instrument calibration adjustments, or official rounding protocols, though these rarely alter the recorded minimum by more than 1°C in a stable late-summer synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月25日多倫多氣溫最低？
8月25日多倫多氣溫最低？
16°C 99.0%
13°C 22.3%
14°C 1.6%
15°C <1%
$4,147 交易量
$4,147 交易量
2026-08-25
11°C或以下
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
是
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C或以上
否
16°C 99.0%
13°C 22.3%
14°C 1.6%
15°C <1%
$4,147 交易量
$4,147 交易量
2026-08-25
11°C或以下
$1,008 交易量
否
12°C
$743 交易量
否
13°C
$100 交易量
否
14°C
$104 交易量
否
15°C
$100 交易量
否
16°C
$230 交易量
是
17°C
$261 交易量
否
18°C
$359 交易量
否
19°C
$296 交易量
否
20°C
$475 交易量
否
21°C或以上
$470 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability on a 16°C low for Toronto on August 25, 2026, reflects confirmed observational data from official monitoring stations (primarily Toronto Pearson International Airport under Environment and Climate Change Canada standards).**
Forecast models ahead of the date consistently projected an overnight minimum near 15°C under mainly cloudy skies, light winds, and a modest cool-down from daytime highs of 24–25°C, aligning closely with the seasonal climatological average low of ~17°C. Post-event hourly records show temperatures bottoming around 16°C (roughly 60–61°F) in the early morning hours before rebounding, consistent with the resolution threshold for the lowest daily temperature.
This skin-in-the-game consensus arises because prediction markets rapidly incorporate verified station data once available, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes like 15°C or 17°C. Realistic challenges remain limited to edge cases such as station-specific microclimate variations, instrument calibration adjustments, or official rounding protocols, though these rarely alter the recorded minimum by more than 1°C in a stable late-summer synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
交易量
$4,147結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability on a 16°C low for Toronto on August 25, 2026, reflects confirmed observational data from official monitoring stations (primarily Toronto Pearson International Airport under Environment and Climate Change Canada standards).**
Forecast models ahead of the date consistently projected an overnight minimum near 15°C under mainly cloudy skies, light winds, and a modest cool-down from daytime highs of 24–25°C, aligning closely with the seasonal climatological average low of ~17°C. Post-event hourly records show temperatures bottoming around 16°C (roughly 60–61°F) in the early morning hours before rebounding, consistent with the resolution threshold for the lowest daily temperature.
This skin-in-the-game consensus arises because prediction markets rapidly incorporate verified station data once available, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes like 15°C or 17°C. Realistic challenges remain limited to edge cases such as station-specific microclimate variations, instrument calibration adjustments, or official rounding protocols, though these rarely alter the recorded minimum by more than 1°C in a stable late-summer synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,147結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability on a 16°C low for Toronto on August 25, 2026, reflects confirmed observational data from official monitoring stations (primarily Toronto Pearson International Airport under Environment and Climate Change Canada standards).** Forecast models ahead of the date consistently projected an overnight minimum near 15°C under mainly cloudy skies, light winds, and a modest cool-down from daytime highs of 24–25°C, aligning closely with the seasonal climatological average low of ~17°C. Post-event hourly records show temperatures bottoming around 16°C (roughly 60–61°F) in the early morning hours before rebounding, consistent with the resolution threshold for the lowest daily temperature. This skin-in-the-game consensus arises because prediction markets rapidly incorporate verified station data once available, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes like 15°C or 17°C. Realistic challenges remain limited to edge cases such as station-specific microclimate variations, instrument calibration adjustments, or official rounding protocols, though these rarely alter the recorded minimum by more than 1°C in a stable late-summer synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions