**Lula has signaled reluctance to join early presidential debates ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first round, citing concerns over format, opponent attacks, and debate quality.** In late July he stated he would not participate merely “to hear bobagem” and would assess the level of exchanges before committing. His campaign confirmed he would skip the August 23 Band debate (the first of the cycle), opting instead for a simultaneous Record interview; Flávio Bolsonaro followed the same approach. Rivals present at the event criticized the absences, while Lula’s team cited unequal conditions after invitations to lower-polling candidates. Upcoming events include a September 14 multi-outlet debate and the final pre-first-round Globo debate on October 1. Trader pricing at 55% for “No” reflects the recent pattern of selective participation and uncertainty over whether Lula will appear in any remaining encounters before the October vote.