The strong Democratic lean of New York’s 10th congressional district, rated D+32 by multiple analysts, underpins the 96.6% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination after defeating incumbent Dan Goldman in the June primary, consolidating support in a progressive-leaning urban seat where recent citywide primaries have favored similar candidates by wide margins. The Republican nominee, Jennifer Moore, advanced without opposition but faces structural headwinds from limited fundraising visibility and the district’s historical margins exceeding 60 points for Democrats. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national partisan surge could still shift outcomes in the final weeks before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$52,226 交易量
$52,226 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
97%
共和黨
2%
$52,226 交易量
$52,226 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$16,728 交易量
97%
共和黨
$35,498 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New York’s 10th congressional district, rated D+32 by multiple analysts, underpins the 96.6% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination after defeating incumbent Dan Goldman in the June primary, consolidating support in a progressive-leaning urban seat where recent citywide primaries have favored similar candidates by wide margins. The Republican nominee, Jennifer Moore, advanced without opposition but faces structural headwinds from limited fundraising visibility and the district’s historical margins exceeding 60 points for Democrats. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national partisan surge could still shift outcomes in the final weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
交易量
$52,226結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New York’s 10th congressional district, rated D+32 by multiple analysts, underpins the 96.6% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination after defeating incumbent Dan Goldman in the June primary, consolidating support in a progressive-leaning urban seat where recent citywide primaries have favored similar candidates by wide margins. The Republican nominee, Jennifer Moore, advanced without opposition but faces structural headwinds from limited fundraising visibility and the district’s historical margins exceeding 60 points for Democrats. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national partisan surge could still shift outcomes in the final weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$52,226結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of New York’s 10th congressional district, rated D+32 by multiple analysts, underpins the 96.6% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Brad Lander secured the Democratic nomination after defeating incumbent Dan Goldman in the June primary, consolidating support in a progressive-leaning urban seat where recent citywide primaries have favored similar candidates by wide margins. The Republican nominee, Jennifer Moore, advanced without opposition but faces structural headwinds from limited fundraising visibility and the district’s historical margins exceeding 60 points for Democrats. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national partisan surge could still shift outcomes in the final weeks before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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