The Iranian regime's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes underpins traders' strong preference for no collapse before 2027. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have suppressed 2025-2026 economic protests through arrests and executions while maintaining loyalty amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent leadership consolidation, including clerical and military continuity, combined with Russian military support and absence of defections or unified opposition, has allowed the government to propose terms for ending hostilities in May 2026. External pressures from sanctions, airstrikes, and regional setbacks have not yet produced the internal fractures needed for rapid regime change, consistent with historical patterns of authoritarian endurance under duress.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$17,911,806 交易量
$17,911,806 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$17,911,806 交易量
$17,911,806 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes underpins traders' strong preference for no collapse before 2027. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have suppressed 2025-2026 economic protests through arrests and executions while maintaining loyalty amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent leadership consolidation, including clerical and military continuity, combined with Russian military support and absence of defections or unified opposition, has allowed the government to propose terms for ending hostilities in May 2026. External pressures from sanctions, airstrikes, and regional setbacks have not yet produced the internal fractures needed for rapid regime change, consistent with historical patterns of authoritarian endurance under duress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$17,911,806結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes underpins traders' strong preference for no collapse before 2027. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have suppressed 2025-2026 economic protests through arrests and executions while maintaining loyalty amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent leadership consolidation, including clerical and military continuity, combined with Russian military support and absence of defections or unified opposition, has allowed the government to propose terms for ending hostilities in May 2026. External pressures from sanctions, airstrikes, and regional setbacks have not yet produced the internal fractures needed for rapid regime change, consistent with historical patterns of authoritarian endurance under duress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,911,806結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination during U.S.-Israeli strikes underpins traders' strong preference for no collapse before 2027. Security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have suppressed 2025-2026 economic protests through arrests and executions while maintaining loyalty amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent leadership consolidation, including clerical and military continuity, combined with Russian military support and absence of defections or unified opposition, has allowed the government to propose terms for ending hostilities in May 2026. External pressures from sanctions, airstrikes, and regional setbacks have not yet produced the internal fractures needed for rapid regime change, consistent with historical patterns of authoritarian endurance under duress.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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