Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella leads Iván Cepeda Castro of the Historic Pact in the June 21 runoff following his first-round plurality of 43.7 percent to Cepeda’s 40.9 percent on May 31. Recent runoff polling averages place de la Espriella ahead by roughly seven points, reflecting consolidation of conservative support through endorsements from Paloma Valencia, Álvaro Uribe, and Iván Duque, alongside a Trump endorsement. Cepeda has moderated positions on constitutional reform to court centrists while retaining ties to the outgoing Petro administration. Extreme polarization, high first-round turnout, and the short campaign window between rounds sustain tight trader consensus around a 5-10 point de la Espriella margin, with further separation likely hinging on final turnout among swing voters and any late campaign events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于德拉·埃斯普列拉 5-10% 53%
德拉·埃斯普里埃拉 10-15% 20%
德拉·埃斯普里耶拉 0-5% 13%
塞佩达·卡斯特罗获胜 11%
$122,078 交易量
$122,078 交易量
2026-06-22
德拉·埃斯普列拉 15%+
6%
德拉·埃斯普里埃拉 10-15%
20%
德拉·埃斯普列拉 5-10%
53%
德拉·埃斯普里耶拉 0-5%
13%
塞佩达·卡斯特罗获胜
11%
德拉·埃斯普列拉 5-10% 53%
德拉·埃斯普里埃拉 10-15% 20%
德拉·埃斯普里耶拉 0-5% 13%
塞佩达·卡斯特罗获胜 11%
$122,078 交易量
$122,078 交易量
2026-06-22
德拉·埃斯普列拉 15%+
$27,532 交易量
6%
德拉·埃斯普里埃拉 10-15%
$28,610 交易量
20%
德拉·埃斯普列拉 5-10%
$25,334 交易量
53%
德拉·埃斯普里耶拉 0-5%
$25,400 交易量
13%
塞佩达·卡斯特罗获胜
$15,203 交易量
11%
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella leads Iván Cepeda Castro of the Historic Pact in the June 21 runoff following his first-round plurality of 43.7 percent to Cepeda’s 40.9 percent on May 31. Recent runoff polling averages place de la Espriella ahead by roughly seven points, reflecting consolidation of conservative support through endorsements from Paloma Valencia, Álvaro Uribe, and Iván Duque, alongside a Trump endorsement. Cepeda has moderated positions on constitutional reform to court centrists while retaining ties to the outgoing Petro administration. Extreme polarization, high first-round turnout, and the short campaign window between rounds sustain tight trader consensus around a 5-10 point de la Espriella margin, with further separation likely hinging on final turnout among swing voters and any late campaign events.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
交易量
$122,078结束日期
2026-06-22市场开放时间
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella leads Iván Cepeda Castro of the Historic Pact in the June 21 runoff following his first-round plurality of 43.7 percent to Cepeda’s 40.9 percent on May 31. Recent runoff polling averages place de la Espriella ahead by roughly seven points, reflecting consolidation of conservative support through endorsements from Paloma Valencia, Álvaro Uribe, and Iván Duque, alongside a Trump endorsement. Cepeda has moderated positions on constitutional reform to court centrists while retaining ties to the outgoing Petro administration. Extreme polarization, high first-round turnout, and the short campaign window between rounds sustain tight trader consensus around a 5-10 point de la Espriella margin, with further separation likely hinging on final turnout among swing voters and any late campaign events.
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$122,078结束日期
2026-06-22市场开放时间
Jun 5, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella leads Iván Cepeda Castro of the Historic Pact in the June 21 runoff following his first-round plurality of 43.7 percent to Cepeda’s 40.9 percent on May 31. Recent runoff polling averages place de la Espriella ahead by roughly seven points, reflecting consolidation of conservative support through endorsements from Paloma Valencia, Álvaro Uribe, and Iván Duque, alongside a Trump endorsement. Cepeda has moderated positions on constitutional reform to court centrists while retaining ties to the outgoing Petro administration. Extreme polarization, high first-round turnout, and the short campaign window between rounds sustain tight trader consensus around a 5-10 point de la Espriella margin, with further separation likely hinging on final turnout among swing voters and any late campaign events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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