Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year and subsequent CPI prints, combined with energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 37% odds of a hike by December. Despite these pressures and resilient labor market readings, the 68.5% implied probability of no rate hike in 2026 reflects the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, the March dot plot’s median projection for one cut later in the year, and policymakers’ emphasis on data dependence rather than immediate tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and May inflation releases, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment concerns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,100,836 交易量
$1,100,836 交易量
2026-12-09
是
$1,100,836 交易量
$1,100,836 交易量
2026-12-09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year and subsequent CPI prints, combined with energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 37% odds of a hike by December. Despite these pressures and resilient labor market readings, the 68.5% implied probability of no rate hike in 2026 reflects the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, the March dot plot’s median projection for one cut later in the year, and policymakers’ emphasis on data dependence rather than immediate tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and May inflation releases, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment concerns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,100,836结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year and subsequent CPI prints, combined with energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 37% odds of a hike by December. Despite these pressures and resilient labor market readings, the 68.5% implied probability of no rate hike in 2026 reflects the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, the March dot plot’s median projection for one cut later in the year, and policymakers’ emphasis on data dependence rather than immediate tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and May inflation releases, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment concerns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,100,836结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year and subsequent CPI prints, combined with energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 37% odds of a hike by December. Despite these pressures and resilient labor market readings, the 68.5% implied probability of no rate hike in 2026 reflects the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, the March dot plot’s median projection for one cut later in the year, and policymakers’ emphasis on data dependence rather than immediate tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and May inflation releases, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment concerns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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