Trader consensus favors Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas to win the Galway West by-election on May 22, pricing him at 45.5% implied probability ahead of Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 32.9%, despite Kyne's razor-thin 17%-16% first-preference lead in the sole opinion poll to date—an Ipsos B&A survey for Irish Times/TG4 published May 8 after fieldwork ending May 7. Thomas's edge stems from his strong Connemara base, vocal opposition to local asylum plans, and anticipated preference flows from other independents and ex-Fianna Fáil voters in this fragmented 17-candidate field spanning urban Galway, Gaeltacht areas, and islands. Transfers under ranked-choice voting will decide the outcome amid housing, cost-of-living, and traffic concerns, with Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% first preferences) and Social Democrats' Irish-speaking Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%) positioned to shape left-leaning dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于诺埃尔·托马斯 45%
Seán Kyne 32.4%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.3%
海伦·奥格布 6.8%
$43,965 交易量
$43,965 交易量
2027-03-31
Sheila Garrity
1%
Seán Kyne
32%
尼尔·墨菲
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
10%
奥拉·纳金特
<1%
海伦·奥格布
7%
丹曼·鲁克
<1%
诺埃尔·托马斯
45%
托马斯·韦尔比
<1%
迈克·卡巴德
5%
马克·洛汉
5%
诺埃尔·托马斯 45%
Seán Kyne 32.4%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.3%
海伦·奥格布 6.8%
$43,965 交易量
$43,965 交易量
2027-03-31
Sheila Garrity
$20,198 交易量
1%
Seán Kyne
$3,253 交易量
32%
尼尔·墨菲
$1,792 交易量
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$1,589 交易量
10%
奥拉·纳金特
$1,592 交易量
<1%
海伦·奥格布
$2,875 交易量
7%
丹曼·鲁克
$1,564 交易量
<1%
诺埃尔·托马斯
$4,982 交易量
45%
托马斯·韦尔比
$1,609 交易量
<1%
迈克·卡巴德
$2,051 交易量
5%
马克·洛汉
$2,461 交易量
5%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus favors Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas to win the Galway West by-election on May 22, pricing him at 45.5% implied probability ahead of Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 32.9%, despite Kyne's razor-thin 17%-16% first-preference lead in the sole opinion poll to date—an Ipsos B&A survey for Irish Times/TG4 published May 8 after fieldwork ending May 7. Thomas's edge stems from his strong Connemara base, vocal opposition to local asylum plans, and anticipated preference flows from other independents and ex-Fianna Fáil voters in this fragmented 17-candidate field spanning urban Galway, Gaeltacht areas, and islands. Transfers under ranked-choice voting will decide the outcome amid housing, cost-of-living, and traffic concerns, with Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% first preferences) and Social Democrats' Irish-speaking Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%) positioned to shape left-leaning dynamics.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
交易量
$43,965结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus favors Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas to win the Galway West by-election on May 22, pricing him at 45.5% implied probability ahead of Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 32.9%, despite Kyne's razor-thin 17%-16% first-preference lead in the sole opinion poll to date—an Ipsos B&A survey for Irish Times/TG4 published May 8 after fieldwork ending May 7. Thomas's edge stems from his strong Connemara base, vocal opposition to local asylum plans, and anticipated preference flows from other independents and ex-Fianna Fáil voters in this fragmented 17-candidate field spanning urban Galway, Gaeltacht areas, and islands. Transfers under ranked-choice voting will decide the outcome amid housing, cost-of-living, and traffic concerns, with Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% first preferences) and Social Democrats' Irish-speaking Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%) positioned to shape left-leaning dynamics.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$43,965结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas to win the Galway West by-election on May 22, pricing him at 45.5% implied probability ahead of Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 32.9%, despite Kyne's razor-thin 17%-16% first-preference lead in the sole opinion poll to date—an Ipsos B&A survey for Irish Times/TG4 published May 8 after fieldwork ending May 7. Thomas's edge stems from his strong Connemara base, vocal opposition to local asylum plans, and anticipated preference flows from other independents and ex-Fianna Fáil voters in this fragmented 17-candidate field spanning urban Galway, Gaeltacht areas, and islands. Transfers under ranked-choice voting will decide the outcome amid housing, cost-of-living, and traffic concerns, with Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% first preferences) and Social Democrats' Irish-speaking Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%) positioned to shape left-leaning dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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