The December 6, 2026 presidential and legislative elections in Guinea-Bissau follow a November 2025 coup that interrupted disputed voting and installed a military-led transitional government under General Horta Inta-A Na Man. The transitional charter bars the interim leader from running, while the Supreme Court’s exclusion of the PAIGC party list prompted that group to endorse independent candidate Fernando Dias da Costa. Incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló, ousted during the coup after claiming victory in the prior contest, remains a listed contender alongside other independents and smaller-party figures. Trader consensus keeps probabilities tightly clustered because the post-coup environment features unresolved institutional uncertainty, a fragmented field of more than a dozen candidates, and limited reliable polling or endorsements that would clarify paths to a first-round majority. Regional mediation by ECOWAS and AU pressure for an inclusive process have so far produced only modest stabilization. Any credible polling release, final candidate registration decisions, major party realignments, or renewed security incidents before December could widen the gap among the leaders.