Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Amsterdam on May 14 at 48.5% implied probability, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast specifying a daytime maximum of 12°C amid alternating thunderstorms, moderate rain, and sun, with 90% precipitation chance limiting solar heating. This aligns with recent HARMONIE, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles showing a lingering cold front and northerly flow capping highs well below May climatological averages near 16–17°C, following recent observations of 11°C on May 11 and 13°C on May 12. While 13°C (24.5%) and 11°C (17%) reflect model spread uncertainty inherent to short-range forecasts, new hourly KNMI updates and observations through the afternoon landfall window could refine positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 14?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 14?
12°C 47%
13°C 23%
11°C 19%
14°C 10.5%
最新
$16,333 交易量
最新
$16,333 交易量
2026-05-14
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
19%
12°C
47%
13°C
23%
14°C
10%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 47%
13°C 23%
11°C 19%
14°C 10.5%
最新
$16,333 交易量
最新
$16,333 交易量
2026-05-14
7°C or below
$2,756 交易量
<1%
8°C
$861 交易量
<1%
9°C
$858 交易量
1%
10°C
$1,377 交易量
3%
11°C
$1,995 交易量
19%
12°C
$2,368 交易量
47%
13°C
$1,020 交易量
23%
14°C
$1,878 交易量
10%
15°C
$1,002 交易量
1%
16°C
$1,488 交易量
1%
17°C or higher
$739 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Amsterdam on May 14 at 48.5% implied probability, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast specifying a daytime maximum of 12°C amid alternating thunderstorms, moderate rain, and sun, with 90% precipitation chance limiting solar heating. This aligns with recent HARMONIE, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles showing a lingering cold front and northerly flow capping highs well below May climatological averages near 16–17°C, following recent observations of 11°C on May 11 and 13°C on May 12. While 13°C (24.5%) and 11°C (17%) reflect model spread uncertainty inherent to short-range forecasts, new hourly KNMI updates and observations through the afternoon landfall window could refine positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$16,333结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Amsterdam on May 14 at 48.5% implied probability, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast specifying a daytime maximum of 12°C amid alternating thunderstorms, moderate rain, and sun, with 90% precipitation chance limiting solar heating. This aligns with recent HARMONIE, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles showing a lingering cold front and northerly flow capping highs well below May climatological averages near 16–17°C, following recent observations of 11°C on May 11 and 13°C on May 12. While 13°C (24.5%) and 11°C (17%) reflect model spread uncertainty inherent to short-range forecasts, new hourly KNMI updates and observations through the afternoon landfall window could refine positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$16,333结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Amsterdam on May 14 at 48.5% implied probability, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast specifying a daytime maximum of 12°C amid alternating thunderstorms, moderate rain, and sun, with 90% precipitation chance limiting solar heating. This aligns with recent HARMONIE, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles showing a lingering cold front and northerly flow capping highs well below May climatological averages near 16–17°C, following recent observations of 11°C on May 11 and 13°C on May 12. While 13°C (24.5%) and 11°C (17%) reflect model spread uncertainty inherent to short-range forecasts, new hourly KNMI updates and observations through the afternoon landfall window could refine positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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