Recent official forecasts from agencies and models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C for Madrid on August 31 under clear skies and light southwesterly winds, supporting the market's leading 34°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability. Stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover have allowed consistent daytime heating through late August, with recent observations showing a gradual rise from the month's below-average start. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around this range, though minor model variations in wind or timing could shift the exact maximum by 1°C. Historical late-summer climatology places typical highs near 32°C, making the current warmer signal the main driver of trader positioning ahead of final observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月31日马德里气温最高？
8月31日马德里气温最高？
34°C 55%
35°C 26%
33°C 18%
32°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
18%
34°C
55%
35°C
26%
36°C
3%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 55%
35°C 26%
33°C 18%
32°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
29°C or below
$138 交易量
<1%
30°C
$6 交易量
1%
31°C
$0 交易量
1%
32°C
$111 交易量
3%
33°C
$74 交易量
18%
34°C
$161 交易量
55%
35°C
$607 交易量
26%
36°C
$69 交易量
3%
37°C
$16 交易量
<1%
38°C
$16 交易量
<1%
39°C or higher
$26 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies and models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C for Madrid on August 31 under clear skies and light southwesterly winds, supporting the market's leading 34°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability. Stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover have allowed consistent daytime heating through late August, with recent observations showing a gradual rise from the month's below-average start. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around this range, though minor model variations in wind or timing could shift the exact maximum by 1°C. Historical late-summer climatology places typical highs near 32°C, making the current warmer signal the main driver of trader positioning ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,200结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies and models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C for Madrid on August 31 under clear skies and light southwesterly winds, supporting the market's leading 34°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability. Stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover have allowed consistent daytime heating through late August, with recent observations showing a gradual rise from the month's below-average start. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around this range, though minor model variations in wind or timing could shift the exact maximum by 1°C. Historical late-summer climatology places typical highs near 32°C, making the current warmer signal the main driver of trader positioning ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,200结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent official forecasts from agencies and models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C for Madrid on August 31 under clear skies and light southwesterly winds, supporting the market's leading 34°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability. Stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover have allowed consistent daytime heating through late August, with recent observations showing a gradual rise from the month's below-average start. Ensemble guidance shows low spread around this range, though minor model variations in wind or timing could shift the exact maximum by 1°C. Historical late-summer climatology places typical highs near 32°C, making the current warmer signal the main driver of trader positioning ahead of final observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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