Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major brokerages such as BofA now projecting the first possible easing only in 2027, market-implied odds reflect skepticism that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target this year. Resilient labor market conditions and solid economic growth further support this positioning, though incoming June CPI and subsequent FOMC decisions could still introduce volatility in the implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 70.5%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.7%
$26,920,386 交易量
$26,920,386 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
71%
1 (25 个基点)
16%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
1%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
<1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 70.5%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.7%
$26,920,386 交易量
$26,920,386 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,188,540 交易量
71%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,244,767 交易量
16%
2（50个基点）
$1,204,248 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,113,801 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,196,046 交易量
1%
5（125个基点）
$1,417,689 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,489,493 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$1,324,034 交易量
<1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,733,053 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$2,454,875 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,122,848 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,273,722 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,157,367 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major brokerages such as BofA now projecting the first possible easing only in 2027, market-implied odds reflect skepticism that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target this year. Resilient labor market conditions and solid economic growth further support this positioning, though incoming June CPI and subsequent FOMC decisions could still introduce volatility in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,920,386结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major brokerages such as BofA now projecting the first possible easing only in 2027, market-implied odds reflect skepticism that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target this year. Resilient labor market conditions and solid economic growth further support this positioning, though incoming June CPI and subsequent FOMC decisions could still introduce volatility in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,920,386结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader consensus around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. With the target range held at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major brokerages such as BofA now projecting the first possible easing only in 2027, market-implied odds reflect skepticism that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target this year. Resilient labor market conditions and solid economic growth further support this positioning, though incoming June CPI and subsequent FOMC decisions could still introduce volatility in the implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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