Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, combined with resilient consumer spending and rising global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have sharply reduced market-implied odds of any 2026 federal funds rate cuts. Traders now assign a 70.5% probability to zero reductions, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its April meeting and the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation. Futures markets have priced out near-term easing entirely, with CME FedWatch showing sub-1% odds for a June cut and rising probabilities of a potential hike by early 2027. Upcoming June FOMC projections and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further anchor or shift these consensus expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 70.5%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.7%
$26,912,111 交易量
$26,912,111 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
71%
1 (25 个基点)
16%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
2%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
<1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 70.5%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.7%
$26,912,111 交易量
$26,912,111 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,188,430 交易量
71%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,244,767 交易量
16%
2（50个基点）
$1,204,248 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,113,801 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,195,648 交易量
2%
5（125个基点）
$1,417,215 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,488,354 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$1,323,130 交易量
<1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,731,179 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$2,454,262 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,122,365 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,272,911 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,157,219 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, combined with resilient consumer spending and rising global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have sharply reduced market-implied odds of any 2026 federal funds rate cuts. Traders now assign a 70.5% probability to zero reductions, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its April meeting and the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation. Futures markets have priced out near-term easing entirely, with CME FedWatch showing sub-1% odds for a June cut and rising probabilities of a potential hike by early 2027. Upcoming June FOMC projections and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further anchor or shift these consensus expectations.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,912,111结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, combined with resilient consumer spending and rising global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have sharply reduced market-implied odds of any 2026 federal funds rate cuts. Traders now assign a 70.5% probability to zero reductions, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its April meeting and the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation. Futures markets have priced out near-term easing entirely, with CME FedWatch showing sub-1% odds for a June cut and rising probabilities of a potential hike by early 2027. Upcoming June FOMC projections and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further anchor or shift these consensus expectations.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,912,111结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, combined with resilient consumer spending and rising global energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have sharply reduced market-implied odds of any 2026 federal funds rate cuts. Traders now assign a 70.5% probability to zero reductions, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its April meeting and the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation. Futures markets have priced out near-term easing entirely, with CME FedWatch showing sub-1% odds for a June cut and rising probabilities of a potential hike by early 2027. Upcoming June FOMC projections and May inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further anchor or shift these consensus expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题