Elevated inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have positioned zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 70.5 percent, with only modest probabilities assigned to one or two cuts. Recent broker revisions from firms including BofA Global Research and Goldman Sachs now project the first easing no earlier than late 2026 or 2027, reflecting a resilient labor market and sticky price pressures that have kept the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision. Traders are monitoring upcoming inflation readings and employment data for any shift in the balance of risks, while the CME FedWatch tool similarly prices a high likelihood of no further monetary policy easing this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 70.5%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.7%
$26,881,956 交易量
$26,881,956 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
71%
1 (25 个基点)
16%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
2%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
<1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 70.5%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.7%
$26,881,956 交易量
$26,881,956 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,187,566 交易量
71%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,244,508 交易量
16%
2（50个基点）
$1,203,687 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,113,761 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,195,060 交易量
2%
5（125个基点）
$1,416,214 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,485,049 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$1,322,150 交易量
<1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,727,730 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$2,451,238 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,116,121 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,267,078 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,151,888 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have positioned zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 70.5 percent, with only modest probabilities assigned to one or two cuts. Recent broker revisions from firms including BofA Global Research and Goldman Sachs now project the first easing no earlier than late 2026 or 2027, reflecting a resilient labor market and sticky price pressures that have kept the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision. Traders are monitoring upcoming inflation readings and employment data for any shift in the balance of risks, while the CME FedWatch tool similarly prices a high likelihood of no further monetary policy easing this year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,881,956结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have positioned zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 70.5 percent, with only modest probabilities assigned to one or two cuts. Recent broker revisions from firms including BofA Global Research and Goldman Sachs now project the first easing no earlier than late 2026 or 2027, reflecting a resilient labor market and sticky price pressures that have kept the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision. Traders are monitoring upcoming inflation readings and employment data for any shift in the balance of risks, while the CME FedWatch tool similarly prices a high likelihood of no further monetary policy easing this year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,881,956结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have positioned zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 70.5 percent, with only modest probabilities assigned to one or two cuts. Recent broker revisions from firms including BofA Global Research and Goldman Sachs now project the first easing no earlier than late 2026 or 2027, reflecting a resilient labor market and sticky price pressures that have kept the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision. Traders are monitoring upcoming inflation readings and employment data for any shift in the balance of risks, while the CME FedWatch tool similarly prices a high likelihood of no further monetary policy easing this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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