Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy-price increases from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts this year. With the target range held steady at 3.50–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major banks such as BofA and Goldman Sachs now projecting no easing until late 2026 or 2027, market-implied odds of 70.3% for zero cuts reflect broad consensus that resilient labor-market data and above-target price pressures will keep the Fed on hold. CME FedWatch futures similarly price roughly 71% probability of no change through year-end. The next key catalysts remain the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases, which could shift these probabilities if energy costs moderate or the labor market weakens materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 70.2%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.6%
$26,950,182 交易量
$26,950,182 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
70%
1 (25 个基点)
16%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
1%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
<1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 70.2%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.6%
$26,950,182 交易量
$26,950,182 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,189,234 交易量
70%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,245,194 交易量
16%
2（50个基点）
$1,204,668 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,114,221 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,197,260 交易量
1%
5（125个基点）
$1,419,165 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,495,694 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$1,325,596 交易量
<1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,736,010 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$2,455,908 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,125,410 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,275,586 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,166,445 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy-price increases from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts this year. With the target range held steady at 3.50–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major banks such as BofA and Goldman Sachs now projecting no easing until late 2026 or 2027, market-implied odds of 70.3% for zero cuts reflect broad consensus that resilient labor-market data and above-target price pressures will keep the Fed on hold. CME FedWatch futures similarly price roughly 71% probability of no change through year-end. The next key catalysts remain the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases, which could shift these probabilities if energy costs moderate or the labor market weakens materially.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,950,182结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy-price increases from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts this year. With the target range held steady at 3.50–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major banks such as BofA and Goldman Sachs now projecting no easing until late 2026 or 2027, market-implied odds of 70.3% for zero cuts reflect broad consensus that resilient labor-market data and above-target price pressures will keep the Fed on hold. CME FedWatch futures similarly price roughly 71% probability of no change through year-end. The next key catalysts remain the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases, which could shift these probabilities if energy costs moderate or the labor market weakens materially.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,950,182结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy-price increases from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts this year. With the target range held steady at 3.50–3.75% following the April FOMC meeting and major banks such as BofA and Goldman Sachs now projecting no easing until late 2026 or 2027, market-implied odds of 70.3% for zero cuts reflect broad consensus that resilient labor-market data and above-target price pressures will keep the Fed on hold. CME FedWatch futures similarly price roughly 71% probability of no change through year-end. The next key catalysts remain the June FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases, which could shift these probabilities if energy costs moderate or the labor market weakens materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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