Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 70.2%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.6%
$26,956,651 交易量
$26,956,651 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
70%
1 (25 个基点)
16%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
1%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
<1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 70.2%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.6%
$26,956,651 交易量
$26,956,651 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,189,309 交易量
70%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,245,194 交易量
16%
2（50个基点）
$1,204,668 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,114,221 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,197,541 交易量
1%
5（125个基点）
$1,419,171 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,496,159 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$1,326,491 交易量
<1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,736,374 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$2,457,034 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,125,883 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,276,965 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,168,367 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,956,651结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,956,651结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment around zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Market-implied odds assign a 70.3% probability to no easing, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing and recent revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs that now delay any cuts until 2027. Strong labor market conditions and the Fed’s current 3.50%-3.75% target range further support a cautious monetary policy stance, with the market-implied path diverging from earlier 2026 dot-plot expectations of modest easing. June CPI and upcoming FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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