Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the market-implied probability for no easing now at 70.3%. Recent data showing March CPI rising to 3.3% and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3% have reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. Geopolitical factors, including energy price impacts from Middle East developments, have further tilted the balance of risks toward persistent above-target inflation. This positioning aligns with hawkish shifts in CME FedWatch pricing and recent broker forecasts delaying any easing into 2027, though upcoming June FOMC deliberations and May inflation releases could still introduce volatility around these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 70.2%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.8%
$26,967,945 交易量
$26,967,945 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
70%
1 (25 个基点)
16%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
1%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
<1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 70.2%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.8%
$26,967,945 交易量
$26,967,945 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,190,474 交易量
70%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,245,308 交易量
16%
2（50个基点）
$1,204,676 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,114,226 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,198,541 交易量
1%
5（125个基点）
$1,420,482 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,497,315 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$1,328,186 交易量
<1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,738,325 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$2,457,209 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,126,492 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,277,095 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,169,616 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the market-implied probability for no easing now at 70.3%. Recent data showing March CPI rising to 3.3% and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3% have reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. Geopolitical factors, including energy price impacts from Middle East developments, have further tilted the balance of risks toward persistent above-target inflation. This positioning aligns with hawkish shifts in CME FedWatch pricing and recent broker forecasts delaying any easing into 2027, though upcoming June FOMC deliberations and May inflation releases could still introduce volatility around these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,967,945结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the market-implied probability for no easing now at 70.3%. Recent data showing March CPI rising to 3.3% and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3% have reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. Geopolitical factors, including energy price impacts from Middle East developments, have further tilted the balance of risks toward persistent above-target inflation. This positioning aligns with hawkish shifts in CME FedWatch pricing and recent broker forecasts delaying any easing into 2027, though upcoming June FOMC deliberations and May inflation releases could still introduce volatility around these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,967,945结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the market-implied probability for no easing now at 70.3%. Recent data showing March CPI rising to 3.3% and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs while unemployment held at 4.3% have reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end. Geopolitical factors, including energy price impacts from Middle East developments, have further tilted the balance of risks toward persistent above-target inflation. This positioning aligns with hawkish shifts in CME FedWatch pricing and recent broker forecasts delaying any easing into 2027, though upcoming June FOMC deliberations and May inflation releases could still introduce volatility around these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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