Hong Kong courts sentenced Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison on February 9, 2026, after convicting the 78-year-old pro-democracy publisher on national security charges of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publishing seditious material. His legal team confirmed in March that no appeal would be filed, closing the primary judicial path to earlier release. With parole eligibility decades away and no scheduled executive action or pardon mechanism active before June 30, traders assign 98.9 percent probability to a “No” outcome. Diplomatic discussions between Washington and Beijing could theoretically produce a concession in the coming weeks, though such an agreement would require rapid high-level coordination unlikely to meet the tight resolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$288,722 交易量
$288,722 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$288,722 交易量
$288,722 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hong Kong courts sentenced Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison on February 9, 2026, after convicting the 78-year-old pro-democracy publisher on national security charges of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publishing seditious material. His legal team confirmed in March that no appeal would be filed, closing the primary judicial path to earlier release. With parole eligibility decades away and no scheduled executive action or pardon mechanism active before June 30, traders assign 98.9 percent probability to a “No” outcome. Diplomatic discussions between Washington and Beijing could theoretically produce a concession in the coming weeks, though such an agreement would require rapid high-level coordination unlikely to meet the tight resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
交易量
$288,722结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hong Kong courts sentenced Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison on February 9, 2026, after convicting the 78-year-old pro-democracy publisher on national security charges of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publishing seditious material. His legal team confirmed in March that no appeal would be filed, closing the primary judicial path to earlier release. With parole eligibility decades away and no scheduled executive action or pardon mechanism active before June 30, traders assign 98.9 percent probability to a “No” outcome. Diplomatic discussions between Washington and Beijing could theoretically produce a concession in the coming weeks, though such an agreement would require rapid high-level coordination unlikely to meet the tight resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$288,722结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hong Kong courts sentenced Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison on February 9, 2026, after convicting the 78-year-old pro-democracy publisher on national security charges of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and publishing seditious material. His legal team confirmed in March that no appeal would be filed, closing the primary judicial path to earlier release. With parole eligibility decades away and no scheduled executive action or pardon mechanism active before June 30, traders assign 98.9 percent probability to a “No” outcome. Diplomatic discussions between Washington and Beijing could theoretically produce a concession in the coming weeks, though such an agreement would require rapid high-level coordination unlikely to meet the tight resolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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