**Current forecasts from sources like Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, GFS-based models, and European guidance point to an overnight low of roughly 11–13 °C for Moscow on the night of August 24–25, with the calendar-day minimum on the 25th likely falling in that window.** This aligns with the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around 10–13 °C (each ~27–29 %). Key differentiating factors include the strength of radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, the timing and intensity of light rain or showers (which limit nighttime temperature drops), and moderate westerly winds that enhance mixing and prevent stronger inversions. Precipitation probabilities of 40–70 % in several runs introduce modest uncertainty, as heavier or more persistent rain could suppress the low by 1–2 °C while clearer intervals allow greater cooling toward the historical average low of ~11.7 °C. Model spread between GFS and ICON/ECMWF runs—particularly on cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture—explains why probabilities remain closely matched rather than heavily favoring one bin. Traders appear to treat the outcome as a narrow band around the ensemble mean, with lower-probability tails (e.g., ≤8 °C or ≥18 °C) reflecting the low likelihood of major deviations given the current stable late-summer pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten or shift these odds as the event nears resolution.