Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.