Braeden Caley’s nomination as the Liberal candidate on July 18, 2026, has anchored trader consensus in the North Vancouver—Capilano by-election scheduled for August 31. The riding has long favored Liberals, with the party capturing nearly 60 percent in the prior general election, and Caley benefits from direct ties to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office plus established party resources. Conservative nominee Stephen Curran trails significantly in the implied probabilities. Advance polls open later this month, leaving limited time for shifts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, sharp change in federal polling, or unusually high opposition turnout could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.