Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed core PCE inflation higher, prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75 percent target range through April 2026. With the labor market remaining resilient—unemployment near 4.3 percent and steady job gains—traders now assign the strongest market-implied odds to a 3.75 percent rate at year-end 2026. This reflects reduced expectations for further easing amid upside inflation risks and a potential shift in FOMC leadership. Upcoming June and July policy meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment data, will test whether these probabilities hold or adjust toward modest tightening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,657 交易量
$6,523,657 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
60%
4.0%
17%
4.25%
6%
大于等于4.5%
1%
3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,657 交易量
$6,523,657 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
$216,014 交易量
<1%
1.25
$134,363 交易量
1%
1.5%
$134,117 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 交易量
1%
2.0%
$246,062 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 交易量
1%
2.75%
$46,024 交易量
1%
3.0%
$454,736 交易量
4%
3.25%
$51,537 交易量
8%
3.5%
$190,202 交易量
7%
3.75%
$518,453 交易量
60%
4.0%
$1,358,661 交易量
17%
4.25%
$413,730 交易量
6%
大于等于4.5%
$2,396,042 交易量
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed core PCE inflation higher, prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75 percent target range through April 2026. With the labor market remaining resilient—unemployment near 4.3 percent and steady job gains—traders now assign the strongest market-implied odds to a 3.75 percent rate at year-end 2026. This reflects reduced expectations for further easing amid upside inflation risks and a potential shift in FOMC leadership. Upcoming June and July policy meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment data, will test whether these probabilities hold or adjust toward modest tightening.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,523,657结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed core PCE inflation higher, prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75 percent target range through April 2026. With the labor market remaining resilient—unemployment near 4.3 percent and steady job gains—traders now assign the strongest market-implied odds to a 3.75 percent rate at year-end 2026. This reflects reduced expectations for further easing amid upside inflation risks and a potential shift in FOMC leadership. Upcoming June and July policy meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment data, will test whether these probabilities hold or adjust toward modest tightening.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,523,657结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed core PCE inflation higher, prompting the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75 percent target range through April 2026. With the labor market remaining resilient—unemployment near 4.3 percent and steady job gains—traders now assign the strongest market-implied odds to a 3.75 percent rate at year-end 2026. This reflects reduced expectations for further easing amid upside inflation risks and a potential shift in FOMC leadership. Upcoming June and July policy meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment data, will test whether these probabilities hold or adjust toward modest tightening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题