Recent FOMC projections and market pricing indicate that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds through late 2026, positioning the 3.75% and 4.0% target ranges as the clearest consensus outcomes. The June dot plot showed a median endpoint near 3.75-4.0%, with nine participants favoring at least one increase this year, while July’s 9-3 decision to hold at 3.5-3.75% reflected divided views amid solid job gains and moderating but still-elevated CPI readings. Geopolitical tensions have added volatility to energy prices, supporting trader bets on limited further easing or slight tightening before year-end. These factors explain the concentration of probability around the current range rather than deeper cuts or aggressive hikes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.75% 39.1%
4.0% 22.6%
4.25% 14.1%
3.5% 8.4%
$6,754,414 交易量
$6,754,414 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
39%
4.0%
23%
4.25%
14%
大于等于4.5%
6%
3.75% 39.1%
4.0% 22.6%
4.25% 14.1%
3.5% 8.4%
$6,754,414 交易量
$6,754,414 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
$242,713 交易量
<1%
1.25
$142,493 交易量
1%
1.5%
$145,909 交易量
1%
1.75%
$147,836 交易量
<1%
2.0%
$262,987 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$87,644 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$172,865 交易量
1%
2.75%
$60,980 交易量
1%
3.0%
$488,730 交易量
1%
3.25%
$64,233 交易量
1%
3.5%
$202,092 交易量
8%
3.75%
$531,835 交易量
39%
4.0%
$1,368,889 交易量
23%
4.25%
$427,272 交易量
14%
大于等于4.5%
$2,407,936 交易量
6%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and market pricing indicate that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds through late 2026, positioning the 3.75% and 4.0% target ranges as the clearest consensus outcomes. The June dot plot showed a median endpoint near 3.75-4.0%, with nine participants favoring at least one increase this year, while July’s 9-3 decision to hold at 3.5-3.75% reflected divided views amid solid job gains and moderating but still-elevated CPI readings. Geopolitical tensions have added volatility to energy prices, supporting trader bets on limited further easing or slight tightening before year-end. These factors explain the concentration of probability around the current range rather than deeper cuts or aggressive hikes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,754,414结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and market pricing indicate that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds through late 2026, positioning the 3.75% and 4.0% target ranges as the clearest consensus outcomes. The June dot plot showed a median endpoint near 3.75-4.0%, with nine participants favoring at least one increase this year, while July’s 9-3 decision to hold at 3.5-3.75% reflected divided views amid solid job gains and moderating but still-elevated CPI readings. Geopolitical tensions have added volatility to energy prices, supporting trader bets on limited further easing or slight tightening before year-end. These factors explain the concentration of probability around the current range rather than deeper cuts or aggressive hikes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,754,414结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections and market pricing indicate that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have shifted expectations toward modest rate hikes or holds through late 2026, positioning the 3.75% and 4.0% target ranges as the clearest consensus outcomes. The June dot plot showed a median endpoint near 3.75-4.0%, with nine participants favoring at least one increase this year, while July’s 9-3 decision to hold at 3.5-3.75% reflected divided views amid solid job gains and moderating but still-elevated CPI readings. Geopolitical tensions have added volatility to energy prices, supporting trader bets on limited further easing or slight tightening before year-end. These factors explain the concentration of probability around the current range rather than deeper cuts or aggressive hikes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题