Recent labor market resilience, with April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent, has reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve can maintain its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end. Persistent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have further tempered expectations for additional easing, pushing market-implied odds for a 3.75 percent federal funds rate at the end of 2026 to 59.7 percent. This pricing aligns closely with revised broker forecasts from firms such as BofA and Goldman Sachs that now see the Fed on hold or delaying cuts until late 2026 or beyond, while the March FOMC dot plot’s median path of one 25-basis-point reduction remains a key reference point amid upcoming data releases and the June policy meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.6%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,655 交易量
$6,523,655 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
60%
4.0%
18%
4.25%
6%
大于等于4.5%
1%
3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.6%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,655 交易量
$6,523,655 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
$216,014 交易量
<1%
1.25
$134,363 交易量
1%
1.5%
$134,117 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 交易量
1%
2.0%
$246,062 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 交易量
1%
2.75%
$46,024 交易量
1%
3.0%
$454,736 交易量
4%
3.25%
$51,537 交易量
8%
3.5%
$190,202 交易量
7%
3.75%
$518,453 交易量
60%
4.0%
$1,358,661 交易量
18%
4.25%
$413,730 交易量
6%
大于等于4.5%
$2,396,040 交易量
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent labor market resilience, with April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent, has reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve can maintain its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end. Persistent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have further tempered expectations for additional easing, pushing market-implied odds for a 3.75 percent federal funds rate at the end of 2026 to 59.7 percent. This pricing aligns closely with revised broker forecasts from firms such as BofA and Goldman Sachs that now see the Fed on hold or delaying cuts until late 2026 or beyond, while the March FOMC dot plot’s median path of one 25-basis-point reduction remains a key reference point amid upcoming data releases and the June policy meeting.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,523,655结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent labor market resilience, with April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent, has reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve can maintain its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end. Persistent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have further tempered expectations for additional easing, pushing market-implied odds for a 3.75 percent federal funds rate at the end of 2026 to 59.7 percent. This pricing aligns closely with revised broker forecasts from firms such as BofA and Goldman Sachs that now see the Fed on hold or delaying cuts until late 2026 or beyond, while the March FOMC dot plot’s median path of one 25-basis-point reduction remains a key reference point amid upcoming data releases and the June policy meeting.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,523,655结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent labor market resilience, with April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent, has reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve can maintain its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end. Persistent inflation pressures tied to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have further tempered expectations for additional easing, pushing market-implied odds for a 3.75 percent federal funds rate at the end of 2026 to 59.7 percent. This pricing aligns closely with revised broker forecasts from firms such as BofA and Goldman Sachs that now see the Fed on hold or delaying cuts until late 2026 or beyond, while the March FOMC dot plot’s median path of one 25-basis-point reduction remains a key reference point amid upcoming data releases and the June policy meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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