Recent polling shows roughly two-thirds of Albertans favoring the province remaining in Canada on the October 19, 2026, non-binding referendum question, with only about one-quarter supporting steps toward a future binding vote on separation. Abacus Data and Research Co. surveys from early September recorded 64-74% support for staying in Confederation, consistent with earlier results and little movement in recent months. A recent UCP byelection loss in a Calgary stronghold has been linked by observers to voter backlash against the independence question placed on the ballot by Premier Danielle Smith in May. Independence advocates have released transition plans, yet these have not shifted broader sentiment, leaving the implied probability of an affirmative outcome this year at low levels reflected in trader pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$293,431 交易量
$293,431 交易量
2026-12-30
是
7% 概率
$293,431 交易量
$293,431 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling shows roughly two-thirds of Albertans favoring the province remaining in Canada on the October 19, 2026, non-binding referendum question, with only about one-quarter supporting steps toward a future binding vote on separation. Abacus Data and Research Co. surveys from early September recorded 64-74% support for staying in Confederation, consistent with earlier results and little movement in recent months. A recent UCP byelection loss in a Calgary stronghold has been linked by observers to voter backlash against the independence question placed on the ballot by Premier Danielle Smith in May. Independence advocates have released transition plans, yet these have not shifted broader sentiment, leaving the implied probability of an affirmative outcome this year at low levels reflected in trader pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
交易量
$293,431结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling shows roughly two-thirds of Albertans favoring the province remaining in Canada on the October 19, 2026, non-binding referendum question, with only about one-quarter supporting steps toward a future binding vote on separation. Abacus Data and Research Co. surveys from early September recorded 64-74% support for staying in Confederation, consistent with earlier results and little movement in recent months. A recent UCP byelection loss in a Calgary stronghold has been linked by observers to voter backlash against the independence question placed on the ballot by Premier Danielle Smith in May. Independence advocates have released transition plans, yet these have not shifted broader sentiment, leaving the implied probability of an affirmative outcome this year at low levels reflected in trader pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$293,431结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETRecent polling shows roughly two-thirds of Albertans favoring the province remaining in Canada on the October 19, 2026, non-binding referendum question, with only about one-quarter supporting steps toward a future binding vote on separation. Abacus Data and Research Co. surveys from early September recorded 64-74% support for staying in Confederation, consistent with earlier results and little movement in recent months. A recent UCP byelection loss in a Calgary stronghold has been linked by observers to voter backlash against the independence question placed on the ballot by Premier Danielle Smith in May. Independence advocates have released transition plans, yet these have not shifted broader sentiment, leaving the implied probability of an affirmative outcome this year at low levels reflected in trader pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题