A recent Alberta Court of King’s Bench ruling has quashed a separatist petition for an independence referendum after finding inadequate consultation with First Nations on treaty rights under Section 35 of the Constitution, halting signature verification despite over 300,000 submissions exceeding the required threshold. Premier Danielle Smith has conditioned any ballot measure on legal clearance and does not back secession, while polls show roughly 27 percent support for independence against 67 percent opposition. These procedural barriers, combined with the Clarity Act requirements for constitutional changes and a scheduled October 19, 2026, referendum focused on provincial-federal relations rather than outright separation, underpin traders’ strong consensus favoring a “No” outcome through the end of the year.