Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 81.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná governorship, reflecting consistent leads of 35–49% in first-round polling from institutes such as AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, and Real Time Big Data released in mid-to-late September. The term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior’s designated successor Sandro Alex (PSD) trails at 18–28%, with Requião Filho (PDT) close behind or slightly ahead in some surveys at 22–28%; both lag far behind Moro in runoff simulations. With the first round set for October 4 and the runoff possible on October 25, Moro’s advantage stems from sustained name recognition and voter expectations of a first-round victory, while the remaining eight registered candidates register negligible support. Recent campaign activity includes Moro’s carreatas and electoral broadcasts across the state, alongside similar efforts by Alex.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertSergio Moro 82%
Sandro Alex 18%
Requião Filho 1.8%
Rafael Greca <1%
$191,869 Vol.
$191,869 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Sergio Moro
82%
Sandro Alex
18%
Requião Filho
2%
Rafael Greca
<1%
Guto Silva
<1%
Alexandre Curi
<1%
Beto Richa
<1%
Enio Verri
<1%
Luiz França
<1%
Sergio Moro 82%
Sandro Alex 18%
Requião Filho 1.8%
Rafael Greca <1%
$191,869 Vol.
$191,869 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Sergio Moro
$126,073 Vol.
82%
Sandro Alex
$19,098 Vol.
18%
Requião Filho
$22,988 Vol.
2%
Rafael Greca
$3,403 Vol.
<1%
Guto Silva
$3,022 Vol.
<1%
Alexandre Curi
$5,452 Vol.
<1%
Beto Richa
$2,625 Vol.
<1%
Enio Verri
$3,396 Vol.
<1%
Luiz França
$5,812 Vol.
<1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 81.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná governorship, reflecting consistent leads of 35–49% in first-round polling from institutes such as AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, and Real Time Big Data released in mid-to-late September. The term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior’s designated successor Sandro Alex (PSD) trails at 18–28%, with Requião Filho (PDT) close behind or slightly ahead in some surveys at 22–28%; both lag far behind Moro in runoff simulations. With the first round set for October 4 and the runoff possible on October 25, Moro’s advantage stems from sustained name recognition and voter expectations of a first-round victory, while the remaining eight registered candidates register negligible support. Recent campaign activity includes Moro’s carreatas and electoral broadcasts across the state, alongside similar efforts by Alex.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volumen
$191,869Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 81.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná governorship, reflecting consistent leads of 35–49% in first-round polling from institutes such as AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, and Real Time Big Data released in mid-to-late September. The term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior’s designated successor Sandro Alex (PSD) trails at 18–28%, with Requião Filho (PDT) close behind or slightly ahead in some surveys at 22–28%; both lag far behind Moro in runoff simulations. With the first round set for October 4 and the runoff possible on October 25, Moro’s advantage stems from sustained name recognition and voter expectations of a first-round victory, while the remaining eight registered candidates register negligible support. Recent campaign activity includes Moro’s carreatas and electoral broadcasts across the state, alongside similar efforts by Alex.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$191,869Enddatum
1. Juli 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 81.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná governorship, reflecting consistent leads of 35–49% in first-round polling from institutes such as AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, and Real Time Big Data released in mid-to-late September. The term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior’s designated successor Sandro Alex (PSD) trails at 18–28%, with Requião Filho (PDT) close behind or slightly ahead in some surveys at 22–28%; both lag far behind Moro in runoff simulations. With the first round set for October 4 and the runoff possible on October 25, Moro’s advantage stems from sustained name recognition and voter expectations of a first-round victory, while the remaining eight registered candidates register negligible support. Recent campaign activity includes Moro’s carreatas and electoral broadcasts across the state, alongside similar efforts by Alex.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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