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icon for Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
Politics·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

icon for Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
Politics·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,868 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for May 31

May 31

$255 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals, including Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026, have followed the party’s securing of a majority government through by-elections and earlier defections by Conservative MPs such as Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has publicly criticized these moves as undermining parliamentary stability, while polling shows divided public views on the practice. A late-April report indicated Liberal outreach to at least one sitting Conservative MP who declined to switch. Historical patterns show floor crossings often cluster during periods of leadership transition or when opposition parties face internal pressures ahead of the next general election. Traders assessing the likelihood of another switch will monitor caucus discontent within the Conservatives and any procedural votes that could highlight dissatisfaction among members.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,868
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals, including Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026, have followed the party’s securing of a majority government through by-elections and earlier defections by Conservative MPs such as Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has publicly criticized these moves as undermining parliamentary stability, while polling shows divided public views on the practice. A late-April report indicated Liberal outreach to at least one sitting Conservative MP who declined to switch. Historical patterns show floor crossings often cluster during periods of leadership transition or when opposition parties face internal pressures ahead of the next general election. Traders assessing the likelihood of another switch will monitor caucus discontent within the Conservatives and any procedural votes that could highlight dissatisfaction among members.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,868
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 17%, followed by "April 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" is "May 31" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.