The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision follows its July 24 cut of the key rate to 14.00%, with annual inflation holding near 6.0% amid one-off fuel and seasonal pressures that pushed the 2026 forecast to 6.0–7.0%. Recent weekly deflation readings in mid-August and softer underlying price growth have supported expectations for another modest easing, yet analysts remain split due to elevated inflation expectations, accelerated lending, and a more expansionary fiscal stance that may keep policy tighter than earlier baselines. The current rate path forecast of 14.5–14.6% for 2026 average and upcoming October budget details reinforce caution on interim meetings. Trader pricing aligns with this balance, assigning the highest probability to no change while leaving room for a 25 bp reduction if incoming data confirm sustained disinflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Russia decision in September?
No Change 66%
Decrease 32%
Increase 1.1%
$80,388 Vol.
$80,388 Vol.
Decrease
32%
No Change
66%
Increase
1%
No Change 66%
Decrease 32%
Increase 1.1%
$80,388 Vol.
$80,388 Vol.
Decrease
32%
No Change
66%
Increase
1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision follows its July 24 cut of the key rate to 14.00%, with annual inflation holding near 6.0% amid one-off fuel and seasonal pressures that pushed the 2026 forecast to 6.0–7.0%. Recent weekly deflation readings in mid-August and softer underlying price growth have supported expectations for another modest easing, yet analysts remain split due to elevated inflation expectations, accelerated lending, and a more expansionary fiscal stance that may keep policy tighter than earlier baselines. The current rate path forecast of 14.5–14.6% for 2026 average and upcoming October budget details reinforce caution on interim meetings. Trader pricing aligns with this balance, assigning the highest probability to no change while leaving room for a 25 bp reduction if incoming data confirm sustained disinflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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