Tight monetary policy from the Banco Central do Brasil, with the Selic rate held near 14.5–15%, has weighed on credit conditions and domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate year-over-year GDP expansion for Q1 2026. Fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit programs have supported retail sales and PMI readings above 52, while resilient external demand and agricultural base effects provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration followed by moderation. With the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands nearly tied in implied probability, the May 29 IBGE release remains the decisive catalyst that could shift positioning based on the final print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
3%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
6%
1.5%–1.8%
37%
1.9%–2.2%
38%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2.7%
3%
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$14,390 Vol.
3%
0.7%–1.0%
$661 Vol.
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$720 Vol.
6%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,045 Vol.
37%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,635 Vol.
38%
2.3%–2.6%
$732 Vol.
18%
≥2.7%
$1,827 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTight monetary policy from the Banco Central do Brasil, with the Selic rate held near 14.5–15%, has weighed on credit conditions and domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate year-over-year GDP expansion for Q1 2026. Fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit programs have supported retail sales and PMI readings above 52, while resilient external demand and agricultural base effects provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration followed by moderation. With the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands nearly tied in implied probability, the May 29 IBGE release remains the decisive catalyst that could shift positioning based on the final print.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$21,009End Date
May 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTight monetary policy from the Banco Central do Brasil, with the Selic rate held near 14.5–15%, has weighed on credit conditions and domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate year-over-year GDP expansion for Q1 2026. Fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit programs have supported retail sales and PMI readings above 52, while resilient external demand and agricultural base effects provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration followed by moderation. With the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands nearly tied in implied probability, the May 29 IBGE release remains the decisive catalyst that could shift positioning based on the final print.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$21,009End Date
May 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight monetary policy from the Banco Central do Brasil, with the Selic rate held near 14.5–15%, has weighed on credit conditions and domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate year-over-year GDP expansion for Q1 2026. Fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit programs have supported retail sales and PMI readings above 52, while resilient external demand and agricultural base effects provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration followed by moderation. With the 1.9%–2.2% and 1.5%–1.8% bands nearly tied in implied probability, the May 29 IBGE release remains the decisive catalyst that could shift positioning based on the final print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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