The closely matched implied probabilities for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth—37.5% for the 1.9–2.2% band versus 34.5% for 1.5–1.8%—stem primarily from the Banco Central do Brasil’s sustained 15% Selic rate, which has tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand since late 2025. This restrictive monetary stance offsets supportive fiscal measures, including minimum-wage increases and expanded lending programs, alongside resilient external demand and agricultural base effects that have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMI readings above 50. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster near 1.7–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration into Q1 followed by later moderation, while the low unemployment rate near 5.8% and softening inflation trajectory add to the range-bound outlook. With the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, traders are pricing in the potential for modest upside surprises from export strength or downside from persistent high rates, keeping the two central buckets in tight competition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
2%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
6%
1.5%–1.8%
37%
1.9%–2.2%
38%
2.3%–2.6%
17%
≥2.7%
3%
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$14,390 Vol.
2%
0.7%–1.0%
$661 Vol.
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$720 Vol.
6%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,045 Vol.
37%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,635 Vol.
38%
2.3%–2.6%
$732 Vol.
17%
≥2.7%
$1,827 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThe closely matched implied probabilities for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth—37.5% for the 1.9–2.2% band versus 34.5% for 1.5–1.8%—stem primarily from the Banco Central do Brasil’s sustained 15% Selic rate, which has tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand since late 2025. This restrictive monetary stance offsets supportive fiscal measures, including minimum-wage increases and expanded lending programs, alongside resilient external demand and agricultural base effects that have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMI readings above 50. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster near 1.7–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration into Q1 followed by later moderation, while the low unemployment rate near 5.8% and softening inflation trajectory add to the range-bound outlook. With the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, traders are pricing in the potential for modest upside surprises from export strength or downside from persistent high rates, keeping the two central buckets in tight competition.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$21,009End Date
May 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThe closely matched implied probabilities for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth—37.5% for the 1.9–2.2% band versus 34.5% for 1.5–1.8%—stem primarily from the Banco Central do Brasil’s sustained 15% Selic rate, which has tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand since late 2025. This restrictive monetary stance offsets supportive fiscal measures, including minimum-wage increases and expanded lending programs, alongside resilient external demand and agricultural base effects that have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMI readings above 50. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster near 1.7–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration into Q1 followed by later moderation, while the low unemployment rate near 5.8% and softening inflation trajectory add to the range-bound outlook. With the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, traders are pricing in the potential for modest upside surprises from export strength or downside from persistent high rates, keeping the two central buckets in tight competition.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$21,009End Date
May 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched implied probabilities for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth—37.5% for the 1.9–2.2% band versus 34.5% for 1.5–1.8%—stem primarily from the Banco Central do Brasil’s sustained 15% Selic rate, which has tightened credit conditions and moderated domestic demand since late 2025. This restrictive monetary stance offsets supportive fiscal measures, including minimum-wage increases and expanded lending programs, alongside resilient external demand and agricultural base effects that have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMI readings above 50. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster near 1.7–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration into Q1 followed by later moderation, while the low unemployment rate near 5.8% and softening inflation trajectory add to the range-bound outlook. With the IBGE release scheduled for May 29, traders are pricing in the potential for modest upside surprises from export strength or downside from persistent high rates, keeping the two central buckets in tight competition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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