Recent Datafolha polling places President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45% of valid first-round votes against Flávio Bolsonaro at 40%, with smaller candidates combining for roughly 13%, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward a 44%+ outcome for Lula ahead of the October 4 vote. Aggregators show Lula holding a narrow but consistent edge in valid-vote scenarios across multiple institutes, supported by strategic voting that has consolidated support for the two frontrunners. Late-campaign measures, including the executive order restricting online betting and adjustments to Bolsa Família transfers, have lifted Lula modestly among women and lower-income voters. Persistent government disapproval near 41% and 17% of respondents open to switching votes introduce some uncertainty, though the short timeline limits scope for major movement before the first round.