Recent national polls from late September, including AtlasIntel, Quaest, Datafolha, and BTG/Nexus, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions with 39–45% support, ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 34–42%, with smaller shares for candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects Lula’s incumbency advantage and broader base amid polarized voter preferences, while Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates much of the right-wing support previously aligned with his father. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to win outright on October 4, making a runoff on October 25 the expected path; trader pricing aligns with Lula’s consistent first-round lead across surveys. Ongoing debates and institutional tensions around the Supreme Court remain secondary to these polling trends in shaping current market consensus.