Recent weak eurozone GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, down from 0.2% in Q4 2025, combined with Middle East-related energy price spikes and heightened uncertainty, has anchored trader sentiment around subdued Q2 outcomes. These factors have prompted downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts, now clustering near 0.8–1.1%, while supporting elevated odds for both sub-0.3% and 1.6–1.9% quarterly readings. Market-implied odds reflect balanced views on whether the bloc can stabilize amid tighter financial conditions and potential ECB policy adjustments, with upcoming inflation data and PMI releases likely to serve as key swing factors before the Q2 figure is finalized later this summer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026
Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026
0.8-1.1% 45%
<0.0% 44%
0.0-0.3% 44%
2.0%+ 42%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
<0.0%
44%
0.0-0.3%
44%
0.4-0.7%
25%
0.8-1.1%
45%
1.2-1.5%
42%
1.6-1.9%
46%
2.0%+
42%
0.8-1.1% 45%
<0.0% 44%
0.0-0.3% 44%
2.0%+ 42%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
<0.0%
$0 Vol.
44%
0.0-0.3%
$0 Vol.
44%
0.4-0.7%
$0 Vol.
25%
0.8-1.1%
$0 Vol.
45%
1.2-1.5%
$0 Vol.
42%
1.6-1.9%
$20 Vol.
46%
2.0%+
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q2 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak eurozone GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, down from 0.2% in Q4 2025, combined with Middle East-related energy price spikes and heightened uncertainty, has anchored trader sentiment around subdued Q2 outcomes. These factors have prompted downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts, now clustering near 0.8–1.1%, while supporting elevated odds for both sub-0.3% and 1.6–1.9% quarterly readings. Market-implied odds reflect balanced views on whether the bloc can stabilize amid tighter financial conditions and potential ECB policy adjustments, with upcoming inflation data and PMI releases likely to serve as key swing factors before the Q2 figure is finalized later this summer.
This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q2 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 11:40 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 11:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q2 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak eurozone GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, down from 0.2% in Q4 2025, combined with Middle East-related energy price spikes and heightened uncertainty, has anchored trader sentiment around subdued Q2 outcomes. These factors have prompted downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts, now clustering near 0.8–1.1%, while supporting elevated odds for both sub-0.3% and 1.6–1.9% quarterly readings. Market-implied odds reflect balanced views on whether the bloc can stabilize amid tighter financial conditions and potential ECB policy adjustments, with upcoming inflation data and PMI releases likely to serve as key swing factors before the Q2 figure is finalized later this summer.
This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q2 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 11:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weak eurozone GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, down from 0.2% in Q4 2025, combined with Middle East-related energy price spikes and heightened uncertainty, has anchored trader sentiment around subdued Q2 outcomes. These factors have prompted downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts, now clustering near 0.8–1.1%, while supporting elevated odds for both sub-0.3% and 1.6–1.9% quarterly readings. Market-implied odds reflect balanced views on whether the bloc can stabilize amid tighter financial conditions and potential ECB policy adjustments, with upcoming inflation data and PMI releases likely to serve as key swing factors before the Q2 figure is finalized later this summer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions