Redistricting has shifted Florida’s 9th Congressional District toward a Republican lean, with the area projected to have supported Trump by double digits in 2024, positioning challenger Dan Green as the frontrunner against incumbent Darren Soto. Recent internal polling from Soto’s campaign shows the candidates tied at 44 percent, while forecasters such as Cook Political Report rate the race Lean Republican and Decision Desk views it as a toss-up. Green, a former Pentagon official and military veteran, benefits from the district’s expanded conservative counties and super PAC support, though Soto maintains stronger individual fundraising and highlights federal project delivery. With Election Day three days away and early voting underway, trader consensus reflects the structural partisan edge for Green tempered by the narrow polling gap.