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Tech·AI

Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

icon for Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Tech·AI

Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

$113,208 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$113,208 Vol.

Polymarket

55%+

$28,868 Vol.

84%

60%+

$49,748 Vol.

49%

65%+

$28,321 Vol.

19%

70%+

$4,458 Vol.

12%

75%+

$1,813 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity's Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy depending on evaluation protocol, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, reflecting iterative gains in adaptive reasoning, tool integration, and multi-effort configurations on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. These releases have driven recent score jumps from earlier 2026 models below 50%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro (~58%) and Meta's Muse Spark entries while competitors close gaps through scale and fine-tuning. With three months remaining in 2026, further Anthropic optimizations or new frontier releases could push the highest Claude score higher, though benchmark saturation and protocol differences introduce uncertainty around incremental gains. Traders should monitor official leaderboard updates and Anthropic announcements for resolution thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$113,208
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://agi.safe.ai/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity's Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy depending on evaluation protocol, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, reflecting iterative gains in adaptive reasoning, tool integration, and multi-effort configurations on the 2,500-question expert benchmark. These releases have driven recent score jumps from earlier 2026 models below 50%, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro (~58%) and Meta's Muse Spark entries while competitors close gaps through scale and fine-tuning. With three months remaining in 2026, further Anthropic optimizations or new frontier releases could push the highest Claude score higher, though benchmark saturation and protocol differences introduce uncertainty around incremental gains. Traders should monitor official leaderboard updates and Anthropic announcements for resolution thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$113,208
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://agi.safe.ai/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "55%+" at 84%, followed by "60%+" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" has generated $113.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" is "55%+" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "60%+" at 49%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.