OpenAI’s strongest reported HLE results sit at 54.7–58.7% as of mid-September 2026, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 configurations that lead public leaderboards at 59–65% with tool-augmented or high-effort reasoning setups. Rapid benchmark gains across frontier models this year—driven by improved chain-of-thought, verification loops, and agentic tool use—have compressed the gap, yet Anthropic maintains an edge in demonstrated expert-level reasoning on the 2,500-question academic benchmark. OpenAI’s next GPT variants or scaled reasoning systems before year-end represent the main swing factor, as historical release cadence and competitive pressure could push its top score into the low-to-mid 60s or leave it capped below 60%. Traders weigh these timelines against the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$107,820 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
78%
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33%
65%+
16%
70%+
10%
$107,820 Vol.
55%+
$34,352 Vol.
78%
60%+
$41,192 Vol.
33%
65%+
$9,431 Vol.
16%
70%+
$5,516 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s strongest reported HLE results sit at 54.7–58.7% as of mid-September 2026, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 configurations that lead public leaderboards at 59–65% with tool-augmented or high-effort reasoning setups. Rapid benchmark gains across frontier models this year—driven by improved chain-of-thought, verification loops, and agentic tool use—have compressed the gap, yet Anthropic maintains an edge in demonstrated expert-level reasoning on the 2,500-question academic benchmark. OpenAI’s next GPT variants or scaled reasoning systems before year-end represent the main swing factor, as historical release cadence and competitive pressure could push its top score into the low-to-mid 60s or leave it capped below 60%. Traders weigh these timelines against the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$107,820End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s strongest reported HLE results sit at 54.7–58.7% as of mid-September 2026, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 configurations that lead public leaderboards at 59–65% with tool-augmented or high-effort reasoning setups. Rapid benchmark gains across frontier models this year—driven by improved chain-of-thought, verification loops, and agentic tool use—have compressed the gap, yet Anthropic maintains an edge in demonstrated expert-level reasoning on the 2,500-question academic benchmark. OpenAI’s next GPT variants or scaled reasoning systems before year-end represent the main swing factor, as historical release cadence and competitive pressure could push its top score into the low-to-mid 60s or leave it capped below 60%. Traders weigh these timelines against the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$107,820End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
OpenAI’s strongest reported HLE results sit at 54.7–58.7% as of mid-September 2026, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 configurations that lead public leaderboards at 59–65% with tool-augmented or high-effort reasoning setups. Rapid benchmark gains across frontier models this year—driven by improved chain-of-thought, verification loops, and agentic tool use—have compressed the gap, yet Anthropic maintains an edge in demonstrated expert-level reasoning on the 2,500-question academic benchmark. OpenAI’s next GPT variants or scaled reasoning systems before year-end represent the main swing factor, as historical release cadence and competitive pressure could push its top score into the low-to-mid 60s or leave it capped below 60%. Traders weigh these timelines against the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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