Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international centers indicate a Beijing high of 29°C on August 15, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderating northeasterly flow that limits peak solar insolation. Mid-August climatology shows typical maxima near 30°C, yet recent model runs emphasize reduced heating from precipitation and higher humidity, aligning with the market's 88% implied probability for 29°C and modest 10.5% for 30°C. Official forecasts highlight uncertainty in exact convective timing, which could nudge readings slightly higher if clearing occurs earlier than projected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
29°C 99.5%
30°C 2.5%
31°C <1%
27°C or below <1%
$80,507 Vol.
$80,507 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
100%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
29°C 99.5%
30°C 2.5%
31°C <1%
27°C or below <1%
$80,507 Vol.
$80,507 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$19,419 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$18,030 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$6,039 Vol.
100%
30°C
$5,911 Vol.
3%
31°C
$6,203 Vol.
1%
32°C
$9,586 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$8,768 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,323 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,600 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,329 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$298 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international centers indicate a Beijing high of 29°C on August 15, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderating northeasterly flow that limits peak solar insolation. Mid-August climatology shows typical maxima near 30°C, yet recent model runs emphasize reduced heating from precipitation and higher humidity, aligning with the market's 88% implied probability for 29°C and modest 10.5% for 30°C. Official forecasts highlight uncertainty in exact convective timing, which could nudge readings slightly higher if clearing occurs earlier than projected.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$80,507End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international centers indicate a Beijing high of 29°C on August 15, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderating northeasterly flow that limits peak solar insolation. Mid-August climatology shows typical maxima near 30°C, yet recent model runs emphasize reduced heating from precipitation and higher humidity, aligning with the market's 88% implied probability for 29°C and modest 10.5% for 30°C. Official forecasts highlight uncertainty in exact convective timing, which could nudge readings slightly higher if clearing occurs earlier than projected.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$80,507End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international centers indicate a Beijing high of 29°C on August 15, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderating northeasterly flow that limits peak solar insolation. Mid-August climatology shows typical maxima near 30°C, yet recent model runs emphasize reduced heating from precipitation and higher humidity, aligning with the market's 88% implied probability for 29°C and modest 10.5% for 30°C. Official forecasts highlight uncertainty in exact convective timing, which could nudge readings slightly higher if clearing occurs earlier than projected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions