Trader consensus has locked onto a 30°C daily maximum for Chengdu on August 16 because official station readings and short-range model guidance have converged on that exact threshold amid stable atmospheric conditions. Partly cloudy skies and light winds have limited both daytime heating from solar insolation and nocturnal cooling, keeping the basin’s humid subtropical air mass within a narrow range consistent with mid-August climatology. Real-time observations from China Meteorological Administration networks show temperatures tracking the forecast envelope without deviation that would push the peak higher or lower. The near-100% market-implied probability reflects this high-confidence alignment, though a sudden convective cell or revised station data release could still alter the final recorded high before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 16?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 16?
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$59,475 Vol.
$59,475 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$59,475 Vol.
$59,475 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
$484 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,091 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,470 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,144 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,773 Vol.
No
30°C
$18,365 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$8,582 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,478 Vol.
No
33°C
$5,629 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,777 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$6,683 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has locked onto a 30°C daily maximum for Chengdu on August 16 because official station readings and short-range model guidance have converged on that exact threshold amid stable atmospheric conditions. Partly cloudy skies and light winds have limited both daytime heating from solar insolation and nocturnal cooling, keeping the basin’s humid subtropical air mass within a narrow range consistent with mid-August climatology. Real-time observations from China Meteorological Administration networks show temperatures tracking the forecast envelope without deviation that would push the peak higher or lower. The near-100% market-implied probability reflects this high-confidence alignment, though a sudden convective cell or revised station data release could still alter the final recorded high before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$59,475End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has locked onto a 30°C daily maximum for Chengdu on August 16 because official station readings and short-range model guidance have converged on that exact threshold amid stable atmospheric conditions. Partly cloudy skies and light winds have limited both daytime heating from solar insolation and nocturnal cooling, keeping the basin’s humid subtropical air mass within a narrow range consistent with mid-August climatology. Real-time observations from China Meteorological Administration networks show temperatures tracking the forecast envelope without deviation that would push the peak higher or lower. The near-100% market-implied probability reflects this high-confidence alignment, though a sudden convective cell or revised station data release could still alter the final recorded high before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$59,475End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked onto a 30°C daily maximum for Chengdu on August 16 because official station readings and short-range model guidance have converged on that exact threshold amid stable atmospheric conditions. Partly cloudy skies and light winds have limited both daytime heating from solar insolation and nocturnal cooling, keeping the basin’s humid subtropical air mass within a narrow range consistent with mid-August climatology. Real-time observations from China Meteorological Administration networks show temperatures tracking the forecast envelope without deviation that would push the peak higher or lower. The near-100% market-implied probability reflects this high-confidence alignment, though a sudden convective cell or revised station data release could still alter the final recorded high before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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