Traders have converged on a 31°C high for Hong Kong on August 15 with near-certainty because official Hong Kong Observatory observations, consistent with post-Typhoon Dolphin cooling and regional model guidance, recorded that exact maximum under partly cloudy conditions with light rain. Seasonal forecasts from the Observatory had projected normal to above-normal August temperatures overall, yet the immediate synoptic pattern after the early-month heatwave produced a modest peak around the long-term climatological average rather than the record 36.9°C seen days earlier. Market-implied odds reflect high confidence in these verified station data, which serve as the resolution benchmark; only an unprecedented post-release correction to the official daily maximum could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
31°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$289,174 Vol.
$289,174 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$289,174 Vol.
$289,174 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$6,020 Vol.
No
28°C
$33,881 Vol.
No
29°C
$35,010 Vol.
No
30°C
$24,639 Vol.
No
31°C
$46,392 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$46,309 Vol.
No
33°C
$38,963 Vol.
No
34°C
$29,974 Vol.
No
35°C
$4,094 Vol.
No
36°C
$2,633 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$21,260 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on a 31°C high for Hong Kong on August 15 with near-certainty because official Hong Kong Observatory observations, consistent with post-Typhoon Dolphin cooling and regional model guidance, recorded that exact maximum under partly cloudy conditions with light rain. Seasonal forecasts from the Observatory had projected normal to above-normal August temperatures overall, yet the immediate synoptic pattern after the early-month heatwave produced a modest peak around the long-term climatological average rather than the record 36.9°C seen days earlier. Market-implied odds reflect high confidence in these verified station data, which serve as the resolution benchmark; only an unprecedented post-release correction to the official daily maximum could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$289,174End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on a 31°C high for Hong Kong on August 15 with near-certainty because official Hong Kong Observatory observations, consistent with post-Typhoon Dolphin cooling and regional model guidance, recorded that exact maximum under partly cloudy conditions with light rain. Seasonal forecasts from the Observatory had projected normal to above-normal August temperatures overall, yet the immediate synoptic pattern after the early-month heatwave produced a modest peak around the long-term climatological average rather than the record 36.9°C seen days earlier. Market-implied odds reflect high confidence in these verified station data, which serve as the resolution benchmark; only an unprecedented post-release correction to the official daily maximum could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$289,174End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on a 31°C high for Hong Kong on August 15 with near-certainty because official Hong Kong Observatory observations, consistent with post-Typhoon Dolphin cooling and regional model guidance, recorded that exact maximum under partly cloudy conditions with light rain. Seasonal forecasts from the Observatory had projected normal to above-normal August temperatures overall, yet the immediate synoptic pattern after the early-month heatwave produced a modest peak around the long-term climatological average rather than the record 36.9°C seen days earlier. Market-implied odds reflect high confidence in these verified station data, which serve as the resolution benchmark; only an unprecedented post-release correction to the official daily maximum could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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