Official meteorological observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 25°C on May 16, directly supporting the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. Subtropical ridge influences and light southerly flow suppressed stronger warming, keeping readings consistent with seasonal norms rather than any anomalous heat event. Traders priced in near-certainty once preliminary station data aligned with model guidance, leaving minimal room for revision. An unexpected upward adjustment in verified records or reclassification of a brief spike could theoretically shift the result, though such changes are rare after initial quality-controlled reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$302,787 Vol.
$302,787 Vol.
May 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$302,787 Vol.
$302,787 Vol.
May 16, 2026
19°C or below
$20,087 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$12,423 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$12,259 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$6,633 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,753 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$37,336 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$77,348 Vol.
100%
26°C
$43,033 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$39,653 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$25,261 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$24,002 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 25°C on May 16, directly supporting the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. Subtropical ridge influences and light southerly flow suppressed stronger warming, keeping readings consistent with seasonal norms rather than any anomalous heat event. Traders priced in near-certainty once preliminary station data aligned with model guidance, leaving minimal room for revision. An unexpected upward adjustment in verified records or reclassification of a brief spike could theoretically shift the result, though such changes are rare after initial quality-controlled reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Volume
$302,787End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 25°C on May 16, directly supporting the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. Subtropical ridge influences and light southerly flow suppressed stronger warming, keeping readings consistent with seasonal norms rather than any anomalous heat event. Traders priced in near-certainty once preliminary station data aligned with model guidance, leaving minimal room for revision. An unexpected upward adjustment in verified records or reclassification of a brief spike could theoretically shift the result, though such changes are rare after initial quality-controlled reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$302,787End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official meteorological observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 25°C on May 16, directly supporting the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome. Subtropical ridge influences and light southerly flow suppressed stronger warming, keeping readings consistent with seasonal norms rather than any anomalous heat event. Traders priced in near-certainty once preliminary station data aligned with model guidance, leaving minimal room for revision. An unexpected upward adjustment in verified records or reclassification of a brief spike could theoretically shift the result, though such changes are rare after initial quality-controlled reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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