Current forecast models from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration indicate a daily maximum near 29–30 °C in Taipei on May 17, with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes reflecting modest uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover and moisture. Persistent northeasterly flow and elevated humidity associated with the early Meiyu season are expected to limit solar heating, keeping readings close to the seasonal average rather than allowing stronger subtropical ridging to push values toward 32 °C or higher. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, with only small differences in timing of any scattered showers able to tip the peak by a degree. Resolution will hinge on the official Songshan Airport observation, which has historically aligned closely with these model consensus ranges during transitional May patterns.