Current forecast models from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate significant uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures for London on May 21, driven by variable cloud cover and potential radiative cooling under clear skies. Ensemble runs show a wide spread, with some solutions favoring calm conditions that could allow the mercury to dip to 7°C or below, while others point to milder southerly flow keeping lows near or above 17°C. Historical May climatology places typical overnight lows around 8–10°C, but shifting high-pressure patterns and Atlantic moisture could alter this baseline. Traders are closely monitoring the next model updates and surface observations for clearer signals on wind speeds and humidity, which directly influence how far temperatures fall after sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 21?
Lowest temperature in London on May 21?
7°C or below 41%
17°C or higher 41%
12°C 20%
13°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 21, 2026
7°C or below
41%
8°C
11%
9°C
14%
10°C
16%
11°C
20%
12°C
20%
13°C
20%
14°C
18%
15°C
14%
16°C
9%
17°C or higher
41%
7°C or below 41%
17°C or higher 41%
12°C 20%
13°C 20%
NEW
NEW
May 21, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
41%
8°C
$0 Vol.
11%
9°C
$0 Vol.
14%
10°C
$0 Vol.
16%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$0 Vol.
14%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate significant uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures for London on May 21, driven by variable cloud cover and potential radiative cooling under clear skies. Ensemble runs show a wide spread, with some solutions favoring calm conditions that could allow the mercury to dip to 7°C or below, while others point to milder southerly flow keeping lows near or above 17°C. Historical May climatology places typical overnight lows around 8–10°C, but shifting high-pressure patterns and Atlantic moisture could alter this baseline. Traders are closely monitoring the next model updates and surface observations for clearer signals on wind speeds and humidity, which directly influence how far temperatures fall after sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate significant uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures for London on May 21, driven by variable cloud cover and potential radiative cooling under clear skies. Ensemble runs show a wide spread, with some solutions favoring calm conditions that could allow the mercury to dip to 7°C or below, while others point to milder southerly flow keeping lows near or above 17°C. Historical May climatology places typical overnight lows around 8–10°C, but shifting high-pressure patterns and Atlantic moisture could alter this baseline. Traders are closely monitoring the next model updates and surface observations for clearer signals on wind speeds and humidity, which directly influence how far temperatures fall after sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$0End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCCurrent forecast models from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate significant uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures for London on May 21, driven by variable cloud cover and potential radiative cooling under clear skies. Ensemble runs show a wide spread, with some solutions favoring calm conditions that could allow the mercury to dip to 7°C or below, while others point to milder southerly flow keeping lows near or above 17°C. Historical May climatology places typical overnight lows around 8–10°C, but shifting high-pressure patterns and Atlantic moisture could alter this baseline. Traders are closely monitoring the next model updates and surface observations for clearer signals on wind speeds and humidity, which directly influence how far temperatures fall after sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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