Current forecast models from regional meteorological agencies point to daytime highs in Panama City potentially reaching or exceeding 33°C on May 19, driven by persistent tropical moisture and limited cloud cover during peak heating hours. May climatology shows average daily maxima near 31°C as the wet season begins, with frequent convective activity often moderating temperatures through afternoon thunderstorms; however, recent model runs indicate a window of reduced precipitation that could allow stronger solar heating and push readings higher. Historical data from similar May periods confirm that brief dry spells within the transition season frequently produce outliers above 32°C. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric patterns and ensemble guidance heavily, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty around exact convective timing and intensity. Updated National Meteorological Service briefings and refined model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours could further clarify the most likely peak range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on May 19?
33°C or higher 63%
32°C 25%
31°C 11%
30°C 4.5%
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
11%
32°C
25%
33°C or higher
55%
33°C or higher 63%
32°C 25%
31°C 11%
30°C 4.5%
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
11%
32°C
25%
33°C or higher
55%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGCurrent forecast models from regional meteorological agencies point to daytime highs in Panama City potentially reaching or exceeding 33°C on May 19, driven by persistent tropical moisture and limited cloud cover during peak heating hours. May climatology shows average daily maxima near 31°C as the wet season begins, with frequent convective activity often moderating temperatures through afternoon thunderstorms; however, recent model runs indicate a window of reduced precipitation that could allow stronger solar heating and push readings higher. Historical data from similar May periods confirm that brief dry spells within the transition season frequently produce outliers above 32°C. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric patterns and ensemble guidance heavily, with implied probabilities reflecting uncertainty around exact convective timing and intensity. Updated National Meteorological Service briefings and refined model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours could further clarify the most likely peak range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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