Latest PAGASA and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila points to a May 19 high near 33 °C, driven by moderate easterly flow, rising humidity, and 40 % rain chances that limit peak solar heating during the transition from dry to wet season. Historical May averages of 32–34 °C highs provide context, yet day-to-day differences in cloud cover, localized thunderstorms, and the precise timing of any clearing can easily shift the official NAIA reading between 33 °C and 34 °C. Traders therefore price these two outcomes most closely while assigning lower odds to extremes, reflecting the narrow but genuine uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts and the sensitivity of urban heat-island amplification to subtle changes in insolation. Updated model runs through May 18 will further refine the outlook before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 19?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 19?
33°C 30%
34°C 27%
35°C 19%
36°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
14%
33°C
30%
34°C
27%
35°C
17%
36°C
9%
37°C
3%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
33°C 30%
34°C 27%
35°C 19%
36°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
29°C or below
$26 Vol.
1%
30°C
$10 Vol.
1%
31°C
$40 Vol.
2%
32°C
$19 Vol.
14%
33°C
$0 Vol.
30%
34°C
$88 Vol.
27%
35°C
$5 Vol.
17%
36°C
$0 Vol.
9%
37°C
$278 Vol.
3%
38°C
$25 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest PAGASA and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila points to a May 19 high near 33 °C, driven by moderate easterly flow, rising humidity, and 40 % rain chances that limit peak solar heating during the transition from dry to wet season. Historical May averages of 32–34 °C highs provide context, yet day-to-day differences in cloud cover, localized thunderstorms, and the precise timing of any clearing can easily shift the official NAIA reading between 33 °C and 34 °C. Traders therefore price these two outcomes most closely while assigning lower odds to extremes, reflecting the narrow but genuine uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts and the sensitivity of urban heat-island amplification to subtle changes in insolation. Updated model runs through May 18 will further refine the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$507End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest PAGASA and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila points to a May 19 high near 33 °C, driven by moderate easterly flow, rising humidity, and 40 % rain chances that limit peak solar heating during the transition from dry to wet season. Historical May averages of 32–34 °C highs provide context, yet day-to-day differences in cloud cover, localized thunderstorms, and the precise timing of any clearing can easily shift the official NAIA reading between 33 °C and 34 °C. Traders therefore price these two outcomes most closely while assigning lower odds to extremes, reflecting the narrow but genuine uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts and the sensitivity of urban heat-island amplification to subtle changes in insolation. Updated model runs through May 18 will further refine the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$507End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLLatest PAGASA and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila points to a May 19 high near 33 °C, driven by moderate easterly flow, rising humidity, and 40 % rain chances that limit peak solar heating during the transition from dry to wet season. Historical May averages of 32–34 °C highs provide context, yet day-to-day differences in cloud cover, localized thunderstorms, and the precise timing of any clearing can easily shift the official NAIA reading between 33 °C and 34 °C. Traders therefore price these two outcomes most closely while assigning lower odds to extremes, reflecting the narrow but genuine uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts and the sensitivity of urban heat-island amplification to subtle changes in insolation. Updated model runs through May 18 will further refine the outlook before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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