Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show wide uncertainty in Shanghai’s minimum temperature on May 21, with possible outcomes ranging from cool advection behind a weak frontal boundary to warmer southerly flow tied to early East Asian monsoon influences. This bimodal spread explains why market-implied odds currently price the extremes of 15 °C or below and 25 °C or higher nearly equally at 41 %, while narrower bins around the climatological 18–20 °C range command lower probabilities. Shanghai’s subtropical location and urban heat-island effects amplify sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa winds and boundary-layer moisture. The next high-resolution model runs and updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, expected within 24 hours, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 20–21 verification window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 21?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 21?
15°C or below 41%
25°C or higher 41%
19°C 19%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 21, 2026
15°C or below
41%
16°C
17%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
12%
23°C
12%
24°C
11%
25°C or higher
41%
15°C or below 41%
25°C or higher 41%
19°C 19%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 21, 2026
15°C or below
$5 Vol.
41%
16°C
$0 Vol.
17%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
19%
20°C
$0 Vol.
18%
21°C
$0 Vol.
16%
22°C
$0 Vol.
12%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
11%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show wide uncertainty in Shanghai’s minimum temperature on May 21, with possible outcomes ranging from cool advection behind a weak frontal boundary to warmer southerly flow tied to early East Asian monsoon influences. This bimodal spread explains why market-implied odds currently price the extremes of 15 °C or below and 25 °C or higher nearly equally at 41 %, while narrower bins around the climatological 18–20 °C range command lower probabilities. Shanghai’s subtropical location and urban heat-island effects amplify sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa winds and boundary-layer moisture. The next high-resolution model runs and updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, expected within 24 hours, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 20–21 verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show wide uncertainty in Shanghai’s minimum temperature on May 21, with possible outcomes ranging from cool advection behind a weak frontal boundary to warmer southerly flow tied to early East Asian monsoon influences. This bimodal spread explains why market-implied odds currently price the extremes of 15 °C or below and 25 °C or higher nearly equally at 41 %, while narrower bins around the climatological 18–20 °C range command lower probabilities. Shanghai’s subtropical location and urban heat-island effects amplify sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa winds and boundary-layer moisture. The next high-resolution model runs and updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, expected within 24 hours, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 20–21 verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDRecent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show wide uncertainty in Shanghai’s minimum temperature on May 21, with possible outcomes ranging from cool advection behind a weak frontal boundary to warmer southerly flow tied to early East Asian monsoon influences. This bimodal spread explains why market-implied odds currently price the extremes of 15 °C or below and 25 °C or higher nearly equally at 41 %, while narrower bins around the climatological 18–20 °C range command lower probabilities. Shanghai’s subtropical location and urban heat-island effects amplify sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa winds and boundary-layer moisture. The next high-resolution model runs and updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, expected within 24 hours, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the May 20–21 verification window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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