Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate a building high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula that is driving warmer-than-average spring conditions, positioning the 63% implied probability for a high of 25°C or above as the leading outcome. Mid-May climatology for Seoul typically features daytime highs near 23°C, yet current model consensus shows southerly flow and reduced cloud cover pushing temperatures 2–3°C above the seasonal baseline. Resolution will depend on official 24-hour maximum observations at the Seoul station, with the tight spread among runs over the past 48 hours limiting downside risk. Updated guidance expected within the next 24 hours could further anchor or shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 18?
25°C or higher 62%
24°C 19%
23°C 10%
22°C 4.0%
NEW
$14,913 Vol.
NEW
$14,913 Vol.
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
10%
24°C
19%
25°C or higher
62%
25°C or higher 62%
24°C 19%
23°C 10%
22°C 4.0%
NEW
$14,913 Vol.
NEW
$14,913 Vol.
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
$732 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,255 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,199 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,509 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,498 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,202 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,060 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,067 Vol.
4%
23°C
$827 Vol.
10%
24°C
$577 Vol.
19%
25°C or higher
$987 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate a building high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula that is driving warmer-than-average spring conditions, positioning the 63% implied probability for a high of 25°C or above as the leading outcome. Mid-May climatology for Seoul typically features daytime highs near 23°C, yet current model consensus shows southerly flow and reduced cloud cover pushing temperatures 2–3°C above the seasonal baseline. Resolution will depend on official 24-hour maximum observations at the Seoul station, with the tight spread among runs over the past 48 hours limiting downside risk. Updated guidance expected within the next 24 hours could further anchor or shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$14,913End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate a building high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula that is driving warmer-than-average spring conditions, positioning the 63% implied probability for a high of 25°C or above as the leading outcome. Mid-May climatology for Seoul typically features daytime highs near 23°C, yet current model consensus shows southerly flow and reduced cloud cover pushing temperatures 2–3°C above the seasonal baseline. Resolution will depend on official 24-hour maximum observations at the Seoul station, with the tight spread among runs over the past 48 hours limiting downside risk. Updated guidance expected within the next 24 hours could further anchor or shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,913End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIRecent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate a building high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula that is driving warmer-than-average spring conditions, positioning the 63% implied probability for a high of 25°C or above as the leading outcome. Mid-May climatology for Seoul typically features daytime highs near 23°C, yet current model consensus shows southerly flow and reduced cloud cover pushing temperatures 2–3°C above the seasonal baseline. Resolution will depend on official 24-hour maximum observations at the Seoul station, with the tight spread among runs over the past 48 hours limiting downside risk. Updated guidance expected within the next 24 hours could further anchor or shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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